NHL Hat Trick 10/24 🥅 Living In A Simulation

October 20, 2022

Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

12 GAME SLATE, here's everything you need to know to be successful tonight!

REAL Quick - before we do the thing....

UnderDog Fantasy is legal prop betting in almost every state.

Seriously... Legal prop betting, and it's really well done.

Help yourself out, help us out, little known fact Casino promotion/bonuses are part of the edge.

After you signup, go to the Pick'Em section, thats where you simply pick Higher/Lower (over/under) and prop pick away for up to 20x your money.

You can even use LineStar NHL Props Edge+ to help you make your picks.

PS) If you signup using promo code LINESTAR, today e-mail [email protected] and he'll give your choice LineStar Tee or Hat!

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

FYI - If you're new, I try to keep these short and sweet so I can highlight who my model likes the most, as well as my personal favorite at each position, along with a favorite "value" play, and favorite stacks.

Please hit me up in chat if you have any questions!

12 games are on tap today. LETSSGOOOOOO!!!!!!!

Tonight's Slate

Here are the team numbers for tonight's slate:

Keep in mind - these are numbers for the last 10 regular season games - in other words, a mix of this season and last season. I wouldn't read or lean too heavily into this, but it's a good snapshot of where we left things.

Goaltender

Here are my three favorite strategies with goalies:

  • Pick a goalie with a high win probability

  • Pick a goalie that correlates with one of your stacks

  • Let it ride with a cheap goalie that will face a lot of shots

My favorite tonight is:

Spend Up On...

Let's be honest. You don't need me to tell you to play McDavid, Matthews, or MacKinnon on any given night. They're the best players in the league and are priced up for a reason.

So let's take a look at who I have ranked as the best studs on the slate and then see who bubbles up above the $7000 salary mark.

My favorite:

Center

My favorite:

Wing

My favorite:

Defensemen

My favorite:

Spending Down

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers", but these are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines, or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

My favorite:

Line Stacks

Before going further, let's make this clear:

You 👏 dont 👏 have 👏 to 👏 stack.

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see many winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Here are my favorite stacks (ranked in order of preference) for tonight:

Favorite line: MON1

Risk it for the Biscuit line: PIT3

Today's Props & Parlay 🧾

12 games tonight means we have a super lotto parlay! These are super long odds, so I hope you play these props as singles as well.

Let me know if you're tailing...

Data Data Data...

For the first time, I'm making the data from my sheets, and my simulation numbers available:

Slate

Main Slate:,10/20/2022,Numbers reflect team's last 10 regular season games

TEAM,CF%,CF60,CA60,HDCF60,HDCA60,SF60,SA60,SOT,Sh%,SCF60,SCA60,PDO,GF60,GA60,ProjGoals

ARI,40,45.6,68.5,10.7,16.6,26.1,37.7,57.20%,12.6,23.6,39.2,1.02,3.3,4,3.25

MON,47.9,55.7,60.5,10.6,13.6,30.7,32.7,55.10%,10.4,26...

Disclaimer...

Keep in mind, these are MY favorites. You should all do your own research, and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

If you take anything away from this, remember that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top-ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all-in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.