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  • LineStar® Hat Trick 3/1 | One of These Things Is Not Like The Other

LineStar® Hat Trick 3/1 | One of These Things Is Not Like The Other

Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

Happy Friday. My biscuit for today is that sometimes the numbers and analysis is going to put some funny things in front of you. SPOILER: Jimmy Vesey is my top-ranked player today. I know. I'm just as surprised as you are. I'm not proud of it. Either the crystal ball is broken (likely) or I'm on an island and will take a huge victory lap tonight (not likely).

Personally, I think that a lot of the edge in DFS is to play what others won't. Playing it safe is boring and you either end up holding hands at the top of the leaderboard, or you feel like you fell for a trap. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Tonight's Slate

I really love tonight's slate. This is my favorite slate size. There are enough options where I really think you can go your own way, regardless of ownership.

For game-stacks, I think PHI-NJ and MON-NJR are my favorites. I think both could be high-event games. VGK-ANH is interesting to me as well. I have Anaheim projected as the lowest owned teams in terms of forward line stacks tonight, so if you want to get weird tonight, there you go.

Here are the full numbers:

NOTE: If you’re new, let’s do a quick rundown of what each of the columns represents:

W = wins, L = losses (excluding OT losses), CF% = Corsi (shot attempts) For %, CF60 = Corsi for per 60 minutes (more is better), CA60 = Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, HDCF60 = High danger Corsi for per 60 minutes, HDCA60 = High danger Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, SF60 = shots for on net per 60 minutes, SA60 = shots on net allowed per 60 minutes, GF60 = goals for per 60 minutes, GA60 = goals allowed per 60 minutes.

Of course, if you have any additional thoughts or questions, be sure to hit me up in chat.

Top 10 Skaters

Here are my top-ranked skaters overall on the slate. This is based on recent performance and matchup.

Jimmy Vesey?

It's worth noting that the "PrjOwn" column is based on LineStar's projected ownership for the main slate. It's not perfect, but it's certainly better than nothing. If you missed the last few newsletters, "Proj" is the LineStar projection for the night and "Consis" is the rate that the player has met or exceeded projected fantasy points over the past 30 days.

Rankings By Position

Here are my rankings for players on the slate. Now, these are my own personal rankings based on player performance over the past 5 and 10 games along with matchup and my own sauce. While it's far from perfect, I think it can be helpful if you're new to NHL or have trouble with 1v1 comparisons.

Mostly, I'm trying to give a little more transparency into who I like for the night and who is worth considering. I don't believe in locks or must plays. So with goalies, I usually hover around the top spots and split exposure. In baseball, I'll often swap pitchers if I get a lineup with all the hitters I like. Same applies with goalies. If you build a lineup and like your skaters, but aren't certain on goalies, don't be afraid to create a second lineup with your second favorite goalie.

Always verify goalies are confirmed when setting lineups!

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Next, let's look at today's skaters, starting with centers.

One of the takeaways that I hope you'll get from this is that I might have a player ranked lower that might be a better play in your lineup due to price, consistency, or recent performance. DFS isn't just about picking good players. Build good lineups. It's a fish move to instantly grab each player from the top. If you do that, you'll almost certainly end up with 2-3 punts. Can it work? Sure. But will it work most of the time? Probably not.

Next, let's look at wingers - and like I mentioned, NHL is all about correlation. When building your lineups, always think of who you can pair together. If there's a center that you love, it's probably a good idea to find a winger or defenseman to pair him with.

And defensemen...

Hopefully this helps in your decision making process. Remember, make good lineups. Don't just pick as many top ranked players as you can fit and punt the rest. You'll probably have a bad time. Any questions? Anything else you'd like comparisons on? If so, hit me up in chat.

Bottom of the Barrel

Some might call these "value" plays. I hate the term. These are the players in the lowest salary tier that I think are in a good spot tonight.

Ryan Strome: NYR - C (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.6K)

Pavel Buchnevich: NYR - W (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4.8K)

Tim Heed: SJ - D (DK: $2.8K, FD: $3.5K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Hopefully that makes some sense. Next, I’m going to list three of the the highest-projected owned stacks (based on LineStar Ownership Projections), three of my favorite stacks, and three “biscuit” (high risk, high reward) stacks:

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.