Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Check out the NHL Season Preview & Strategy Guide

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Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.

ICYMI - The NHL Season Preview & Strategy guide goes over the basics of NHL DFS and what I look for when researching players.

Today, I'm thinking recency bias and NHL DFS. This season is different from years past in that teams are playing multiple game sets. So we get Tampa-Detroit, Nashville-Florida, and Boston-Philly all over again. How does that affect how we build lineups, and should it? I'll give my thoughts at the bottom of the article, but first, let's dive into this slate.

Let me know what you think in LineStar chat!

Tonight's Slate

ICYMI, tonight's game between the Minnesota Wild and Colorado Avalanche has been postponed.

Here's numbers on the teams so far this season. Generally, I start my research by looking for teams in good spots. For example, teams that score goals (GF60) that are facing teams that give up goals (GA60). I also look at teams that shoot a lot (CF60) that are facing teams that give up a lot of shots (CA60).

Legend: CF% = Corsi For Percentage, CF60 = Corsi For Per60 min, CA = Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, HDCF60 = High Danger Corsi For Per 60 Min, HDCA60 = High Danger Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, SF60 = Shots on Goal For Per 60 Min, SA60 = Shots on Goal Allowed Per 60 Min, SOT = % of Shot Attempts On Goal, Sh% = % of Shots on Goal That Are Goals, SCF60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60 Min, SCA60 = Scoring Chances Allowed Per 60 Min, GF60 = Goals For Per 60 Min, GA60 = Goals Allowed Per 60.

Goaltender Rankings

How to Interpret This: I've added LineStar Projected Ownership, LineStar Projected Fantasy Points, and Goalie GAA (Goals Saved Above Average), and Saves/60, along with my projected upside for each goalie. Generally, I'm looking for goalies that I think will get a win with a positive (green) GSAA and a high saves number.

As always - double-check that your goalie is starting before the game starts.

My Favorite:

Andrei Vasilevskiy- TB (DK: $8500, FD: $8600) *CONFIRMED STARTER*

Most expensive on the slate, but I'm still leaning this way. Detroit is terrible, so Tampa should win this easily. Vasilevskiy has a 2.00GAA and .927 Save% this season and could pitch a shutout tonight.

Forwards and Defensemen Rankings

How to Interpret C/D/W charts: In NHL DFS, I think it's most important to look at peripheral stats instead of goals which is why I put so much emphasis on shots. This includes shot attempts, high danger shot attempts (those shot attempts closest to the net with the highest probability of going into the net), and shots on goal. I've included projections and average fantasy points to see how each compares so you can more easily find value.

Center

My Favorite

Aleksander Barkov - FLA (DK: $7500, FD: $7400)

11 goals were scored between Nashville and Florida tonight, and it wouldn't surprise me if we hit the over on this game again. At the same time, I'm loving Barkov's shot volume.

Winger

My Favorite:

Filip Forsberg - NSH (DK: $5500, FD: $7300)

Forsberg Friday. Honestly, I expect to have decent shares of all the wings listed, but I really like the NSH-FLA as a game stack and for the player pricing so most of my shares will go there.

Defensemen

My Favorite

Shea Theodore - VGK (DK: $6900, FD: $6400)

I pretty much just play him every time Vegas plays. Sure, he's expensive, but he shoots the puck a ton and is a good way to get exposure to Vegas and their top power play unit.

Bottom of the Barrel

Here are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Eetu Luostarinen: FLA - C (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.2K)

Craig Smith: BOS - W (DK: $3.8K, FD: $4.4K)

Mattias Ekholm: NSH - D (DK: $3.4K, FD: $3.9K)

Line Stacks

Here are my ranked stacks for tonight:

Favorite Stacks Tonight:

BOS1, VGK1, TBL1. Shocking. I know.

Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stacks:

Lineup Strategy - Recency Bias

I'm not sure if this is good or bad yet, but as I mentioned at the top, this NHL season is different with teams playing sets of games, similar to MLB. Tonight we get several rematches from the past several days with Detroit-Tampa, Boston-Philly, and Nashville-Florida. We saw some big scores come from those games, as detailed below, but should that change how we build lineups for tonight?

So far, recency bias hasn't changed my approach. I still play teams and players I like. If it burns me, it burns me, but I'd rather play the players I like than not play them because I think other people are going to play them.

What do you think? Is recency bias changing how you're approaching each slate now?

Disclaimer: Keep in mind, plays and thoughts listed are my own. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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