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- LineStar® Hat Trick 2/4 | Getting Gritty on a Monday
LineStar® Hat Trick 2/4 | Getting Gritty on a Monday
Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.
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Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.
We get kind of a gross 4-game slate today. Gross because I generally hate playing Philly and Anaheim these days. They haven't done well for me from a fantasy perspective much over the past month. At the same time, there's some obvious targets in Toronto and New York. Overall, there's some definite obvious plays on the night, but this isn't a slate that I'd shy from getting weird on. I always like to keep the following in mind:
What's supposed to happen usually don't.
Always try to find out where you can benefit most if others are wrong.
Trust your gut.
If you're feeling Yotes, go for it. Want Vancouver scrubs? Why not? So let's jump into it. These are my overall top ranked players on the slate. Consider these the somewhat "obvious" plays on the slate. Either these players have a good matchup or have been playing well over the last 10 games:
It's worth noting that the "PrjOwn" column is based on LineStar's projected ownership for the main slate. It's not perfect, but it's certainly better than nothing. If you missed the last few newsletters, "Proj" is the LineStar projection for the night and "Consis" is the rate that the player has met or exceeded projected fantasy points over the past 30 days.
Next, here's how the slate looks from a high-level. Here are team numbers over the past 10 games.
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If you're new, let's do a quick rundown of what each of the columns represents:
W = wins, L = losses (excluding OT losses), CF% = Corsi (shot attempts) For %, CF60 = Corsi for per 60 minutes, CA60 = Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, HDCF60 = High danger Corsi for per 60 minutes, HDCA60 = High danger Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, SF60 = shots for on net per 60 minutes, SA60 = shots on net allowed per 60 minutes, SV% = save percentage, SOT = shots on target (percentage of shots taken that hit the goal or go in), Sh% = shooting percentage (% of shots that become goals), SCF60 = scoring chances for per 60 minutes, SCA60 = scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes, PDO = Called SPSV% by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage, GF60 = goals for per 60 minutes, GA60 = goals allowed per 60 minutes.
Of course, if you have any additional thoughts or questions, be sure to hit me up in chat.
Rankings
Here are my rankings on players on the slate. Now, these are my own personal rankings based on player performance over the past 5 and 10 games along with matchup and my own sauce. While it's far from perfect, I think it can be helpful if you're new to NHL or have trouble with 1v1 comparisons.
Mostly, I'm trying to give a little more transparency into who I like for the night and is worth considering. I don't believe in locks or must plays. So with goalies, I usually hover around the top spots and split exposure. In baseball, I'll often swap pitchers if I get a lineup with all the hitters I like. Same applies with goalies. If you build a lineup and like your skaters, but aren't certain on goalies, don't be afraid to create a second lineup with your second favorite goalie.
If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.
With DFS, I try to think of these things:
Who makes the most sense to play?
Who has been the most consistent?
Who has the most upside?
Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?
Next, let's look at today's skaters, starting with centers.
One of the takeaways that I hope you'll get from this is that I might have a player ranked lower that might be a better play in your lineup due to price, consistency, or recent performance. DFS isn't just about picking good players. Build good lineups. It's a fish move to instantly grab each player from the top. If you do that, you'll almost certainly end up with 2-3 punts. Can it work? Sure. But will it work most of the time? Probably not.
Next, let's look at wingers.
And defensemen...
Hopefully this helps in your decision making process. Remember, make good lineups. Don't just pick as many top ranked players and punt the rest. You'll probably have a bad time. Any questions? Anything else you'd like comparisons on? If so, hit me up in chat.
Bottom of the Barrel
I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot tonight.
Nick Cousins: ARI - C (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.2K)
Oscar Lindblom: PHI - W (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.9K)
Radko Gudas PHI - D (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.9K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines.
I’m going to list three of the the highest-projected owned stacks (based on LineStar Ownership Projections), three of my favorite stacks, and three “biscuit” (high risk, high reward) stacks:
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.