LineStar® Hat Trick 2/21 | Finding the Best in an 11-Game Slate

Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

We get a monster 11-game slate tonight with a lot of top teams in play. I've said this before, but tonight is a night that I don't worry about ownership. There are too many top-tier players that I'd be surprised if anyone not named Burns is above 15% ownership. Pick a lane and go with it.

Tonight's Slate

Let's decipher some of these numbers to pick our spots. These are numbers over the last 10 games, starting with team wins and losses. To me, this is important because it gives me a good idea of which teams are finding a way to win, even if the rest of their numbers aren't stellar.

Next, I look at CF% and CF60/CA60. This gives me an idea of shot attempts and a team with a CF% greater than 50 is shooting the puck more than their opponent. Obviously we want teams that take shots because you can't score goals without taking shots. Out of these numbers, I have a lot of interest in Toronto and Montreal because not only are they taking a lot of shots, but notice that their opponent is also allowing a lot of shot attempts. Sometimes this means that the shot differentials can be really one sided.

If we take a look at GF/GA, you'll notice that teams like San Jose, Tampa, and Nashville are teams that are scoring 3 goals or more a game and are facing teams allowing more than 3 goals a game.

On big slates like this, I like to see what stands out (or who doesn't) so I can focus on the best spots for the night.

Here are the full numbers:

NOTE: If you’re new, let’s do a quick rundown of what each of the columns represents:

W = wins, L = losses (excluding OT losses), CF% = Corsi (shot attempts) For %, CF60 = Corsi for per 60 minutes (more is better), CA60 = Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, HDCF60 = High danger Corsi for per 60 minutes, HDCA60 = High danger Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, SF60 = shots for on net per 60 minutes, SA60 = shots on net allowed per 60 minutes, GF60 = goals for per 60 minutes, GA60 = goals allowed per 60 minutes.

Of course, if you have any additional thoughts or questions, be sure to hit me up in chat.

Top 10 Skaters

Here are my top-ranked skaters overall on the slate. This is based on recent performance and matchup.

It's worth noting that the "PrjOwn" column is based on LineStar's projected ownership for the main slate. It's not perfect, but it's certainly better than nothing. If you missed the last few newsletters, "Proj" is the LineStar projection for the night and "Consis" is the rate that the player has met or exceeded projected fantasy points over the past 30 days.

Rankings By Position

Here are my rankings for players on the slate. Now, these are my own personal rankings based on player performance over the past 5 and 10 games along with matchup and my own sauce. While it's far from perfect, I think it can be helpful if you're new to NHL or have trouble with 1v1 comparisons.

Mostly, I'm trying to give a little more transparency into who I like for the night and who is worth considering. I don't believe in locks or must plays. So with goalies, I usually hover around the top spots and split exposure. In baseball, I'll often swap pitchers if I get a lineup with all the hitters I like. Same applies with goalies. If you build a lineup and like your skaters, but aren't certain on goalies, don't be afraid to create a second lineup with your second favorite goalie.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Next, let's look at today's skaters, starting with centers.

One of the takeaways that I hope you'll get from this is that I might have a player ranked lower that might be a better play in your lineup due to price, consistency, or recent performance. DFS isn't just about picking good players. Build good lineups. It's a fish move to instantly grab each player from the top. If you do that, you'll almost certainly end up with 2-3 punts. Can it work? Sure. But will it work most of the time? Probably not.

Next, let's look at wingers - and like I mentioned, NHL is all about correlation. When building your lineups, always think of who you can pair together. If there's a center that you love, it's probably a good idea to find a winger or defenseman to pair him with.

And defensemen...

Hopefully this helps in your decision making process. Remember, make good lineups. Don't just pick as many top ranked players as you can fit and punt the rest. You'll probably have a bad time. Any questions? Anything else you'd like comparisons on? If so, hit me up in chat.

Bottom of the Barrel

Some might call these "value" plays. I hate the term. These are the players in the lowest salary tier that I think are in a good spot tonight.

Josh Archibald: ARI - C (DK: $3K, FD: $3K)

Jesper Bratt: NJ - W (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4K)

Oscar Fantenberg: LA- D (DK: $2.7K, FD: $3.8K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Hopefully that makes some sense. Next, I’m going to list three of the the highest-projected owned stacks (based on LineStar Ownership Projections), three of my favorite stacks, and three “biscuit” (high risk, high reward) stacks:

I've mentioned this in chat, but using the stack finder and using advanced sorters to look at skaters vs opp team are good starting points to pick stacks for the night. I built my own process to do the work for me, but I used to do a lot of this manually in a notebook. I basically built a Venn diagram to decide who's the best among value, Vegas, matchup, recent performance, ownership, etc.

Best matchups tonight based on FPPG to lines over the last 5

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.