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LineStar® Hat Trick 2/2 | Saturday Unicorns
Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.
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Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.
This is a rare Saturday morning where I don't have a list of things to do or places to be, so I'm going to put out a newsletter for tonight's huge 11-game slate. As I've mentioned before with large slates, I think you have to take a stand and just follow your gut. I think that if you're trying to get exposure everywhere on an 11-gamer, you run the risk of min-cashing a couple lineups (or missing completely).
So let's jump into it. These are my overall top ranked players on the slate. Consider these the somewhat "obvious" plays on the slate. Either these players have a good matchup or have been playing well over the last 10 games:
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It's worth noting that the "PrjOwn" column is based on LineStar's projected ownership for the main slate. It's not perfect, but it's certainly better than nothing. If you missed the last few newsletters, "Proj" is the LineStar projection for the night and "Consis" is the rate that the player has met or exceeded projected fantasy points over the past 30 days.
Next, here's how the slate looks from a high-level. Here are team numbers over the past 10 games.
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If you're new, let's do a quick rundown of what each of the columns represents:
W = wins, L = losses (excluding OT losses), CF% = Corsi (shot attempts) For %, CF60 = Corsi for per 60 minutes, CA60 = Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, HDCF60 = High danger Corsi for per 60 minutes, HDCA60 = High danger Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, SF60 = shots for on net per 60 minutes, SA60 = shots on net allowed per 60 minutes, SV% = save percentage, SOT = shots on target (percentage of shots taken that hit the goal or go in), Sh% = shooting percentage (% of shots that become goals), SCF60 = scoring chances for per 60 minutes, SCA60 = scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes, PDO = Called SPSV% by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage, GF60 = goals for per 60 minutes, GA60 = goals allowed per 60 minutes.
Of course, if you have any additional thoughts or questions, be sure to hit me up in chat.
Rankings
Here are my rankings on players on the slate. Now, these are my own personal rankings based on player performance over the past 5 and 10 games along with matchup and my own sauce. Is it perfect? Sometimes, and sometimes I'm way wrong (sorry about Bobrovsky the other night).
Mostly, I'm trying to give a little more transparency into who I like for the night and is worth considering. I don't believe in locks or must plays. So with goalies, I usually hover around the top spots and split exposure. In baseball, I'll often swap pitchers if I get a lineup with all the hitters I like. Same applies with goalies. If you build a lineup and like your skaters, but aren't certain on goalies, don't be afraid to create a second lineup with your second favorite goalie.
If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.
With DFS, I try to think of these things:
Who makes the most sense to play?
Who has been the most consistent?
Who has the most upside?
Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?
Next, let's look at today's skaters, starting with centers.
One of the takeaways that I hope you'll get from this is that I might have a player ranked lower that might be a better play in your lineup due to price, consistency, or recent performance. DFS isn't just about picking good players. Build good lineups. It's a fish move to instantly grab each player from the top. If you do that, you'll almost certainly end up with 2-3 punts. Can it work? Sure. But will it work most of the time? Probably not.
Next, let's look at wingers.
And defensemen...
Hopefully this helps in your decision making process. Remember, make good lineups. Don't just pick as many top ranked players and put the rest. You'll probably have a bad time. Any questions? Anything else you'd like comparisons on? If so, hit me up in chat.
Bottom of the Barrel
I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot tonight.
Nick Bjugstad: PIT - C (DK: $3.3K, FD: $4.4K)
Cal Clutterbuck: NYI - W (DK: $3.1K, FD: $3K)
Ben Chiarot: VAN - D (DK: $3K, FD: $3.5K)
Line Stacks
For tonight, here are my top 12 ranked lines on the night. I've included data bars for ownership, consistency, fantasy points, LineStar projected, and my personal rank on the night.
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.