Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Check out the NHL Season Preview & Strategy Guide

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Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.

ICYMI - The NHL Season Preview & Strategy guide goes over the basics of NHL DFS and what I look for when researching players.

We have an 8-game slate tonight, and I'm going to give some thoughts and techniques on how I tweak the optimizer to get me more of the players that I like in my lineups. But first, let's dive into the slate!

Tonight's Slate

Here's numbers on the teams so far this season. Generally, I start my research by looking for teams in good spots. For example, teams that score goals (GF60) that are facing teams that give up goals (GA60). I also look at teams that shoot a lot (CF60) that are facing teams that give up a lot of shots (CA60).

Legend: CF% = Corsi For Percentage, CF60 = Corsi For Per60 min, CA = Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, HDCF60 = High Danger Corsi For Per 60 Min, HDCA60 = High Danger Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, SF60 = Shots on Goal For Per 60 Min, SA60 = Shots on Goal Allowed Per 60 Min, SOT = % of Shot Attempts On Goal, Sh% = % of Shots on Goal That Are Goals, SCF60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60 Min, SCA60 = Scoring Chances Allowed Per 60 Min, GF60 = Goals For Per 60 Min, GA60 = Goals Allowed Per 60.

Goaltender Rankings

How to Interpret This: I've added LineStar Projected Ownership, LineStar Projected Fantasy Points, and Goalie GAA (Goals Saved Above Average), and Saves/60, along with my projected upside for each goalie. Generally, I'm looking for goalies that I think will get a win with a positive (green) GSAA and a high saves number.

As always - double-check that your goalie is starting before the game starts.

My Favorite:

Jordan Binnington - STL (DK: $8300, FD: $7600) *CONFIRMED STARTER*

From a DFS standpoint, Binnington has been hit or miss, but for the season, he has a 2.13 GAA and respectable .918 Save%. He's also facing a Yotes team that is only scoring 2.5 goals this season.

Forwards and Defensemen Rankings

How to Interpret C/D/W charts: In NHL DFS, I think it's most important to look at peripheral stats instead of goals which is why I put so much emphasis on shots. This includes shot attempts, high danger shot attempts (those shot attempts closest to the net with the highest probability of going into the net), and shots on goal. I've included projections and average fantasy points to see how each compares so you can more easily find value.

Center

My Favorite

Connor McDavid - EDM (DK: $9000, FD: $9000)

Even on an 8-game slate, I don't think you need to get cute. McDavid has been on a tear this season and is facing a horrible Senators team that is allowing 4.89 goals a game.

Winger

My Favorite:

Tyler Toffoli - MON (DK: $5700, FD: $5900)

Again, not going to overthink it. Toffoli has played really well against Vancouver, and I don't have any reason not to keep going back to the well tonight.

Defensemen

My Favorite

Jeff Petry - MON (DK: $6700, FD: $5500)

I have an interest in Makar, but less so with MacKinnon out. I don't love Doughty's matchup tonight. Again, really high on Montreal again tonight so Petry feels like the play.

Bottom of the Barrel

Here are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Colin White: OTT - C (DK: $3.4K, FD: $3.8K)

Dominik Kahun: EDM - W (DK: $2.9K, FD: $3.9K)

Ben Chiarot: MON - D (DK: $3.7K, FD: $3.7K)

Line Stacks

Here are my ranked stacks for tonight:

Favorite Stacks Tonight:

Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stacks:

Keep an eye out for line changes with Colorado's lines. With MacKinnon out, I'm not sure how they will shift.

Building Line Stacks for the Teams You Want

Today I'm going to try to break down how I build out line stacks in my lineups in LineStar. Before you start, I think it's really important to break down who you line and where you want your exposure to go. For me, I like to have a slow drop off in exposure from the teams I like to the teams I don't. Here's where I'm raking teams for today.

It's important to note that before I build outlines in the optimizer, I take the time to go through and hit the LOVE button on players on the lines that I want to play. I did that, and I built out my initial set of lineups to plug into my entries, and here's where I landed:

Not bad, but I really want my exposures to loosely match my rankings. However, in this case, I think I have a lot more ARI than I would like. Now, I can handle this in two ways. On one hand, I can take a stand and know I'm going over the field on ARI. Maybe it pays off, maybe not.

If I don't want as much ARI, I tend to start by lowering their projections. I start with lowering them by 5% and see what that gets me. Something else that works is raising the exposures of the teams and stacks I do like. The catch, of course, is depending on the build model and stack settings, ARI might be the "best" line that fits with a stack like EDM1 or WPG1, for example.

Also, don't be afraid to cross out a team you don't like. The optimizer isn't a crystal ball. Personally, I'd rather take the wheel and play and exclude teams and players I like than run explicitly what the optimizer gives me. Whether it's LineStar or another optimizer, the best DFS players are the ones who tend to take stands and play who they like and eliminate who they don't.

I'd love to know your thoughts on this. Hit me up in LineStar Chat!

Keep in mind, plays listed are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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