Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.

ICYMI - The NHL Season Preview & Strategy guide goes over the basics of NHL DFS and what I look for when researching players.

In DFS chats, Slacks, and Discords, there's a lot of talk about FADES and LOCKS of the night. To me, it's not that black and white. I think that many times we should be somewhere in the middle with that. I'm interested to see what you all think. Read below.

But first, let's dive into tonight's slate.

Tonight's Slate

Here's numbers on the teams from their past 10 games. Generally, I start my research by looking for teams in good spots. For example, teams that score goals (GF60) that are facing teams that give up goals (GA60). I also look at teams that shoot a lot (CF60) that are facing teams that give up a lot of shots (CA60).

Legend: CF% = Corsi For Percentage, CF60 = Corsi For Per60 min, CA = Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, HDCF60 = High Danger Corsi For Per 60 Min, HDCA60 = High Danger Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, SF60 = Shots on Goal For Per 60 Min, SA60 = Shots on Goal Allowed Per 60 Min, SOT = % of Shot Attempts On Goal, Sh% = % of Shots on Goal That Are Goals, SCF60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60 Min, SCA60 = Scoring Chances Allowed Per 60 Min, GF60 = Goals For Per 60 Min, GA60 = Goals Allowed Per 60.

Goaltender Rankings

How to Interpret This: I've added LineStar Projected Ownership, LineStar Projected Fantasy Points, and Goalie GAA (Goals Saved Above Average), and Saves/60, along with my projected upside for each goalie. Generally, I'm looking for goalies that I think will get a win with a positive (green) GSAA and a high saves number.

As always - double-check that your goalie is starting before the game starts.

My Favorite:

Elvis Merzlikins - CLS (DK: $7800, FD: $7300) *CONFIRMED STARTER*

Nashville is terrible. They're averaging 30 shots a game but only scoring 2.3 goals a game. I really like Columbus tonight and think Elvis picks up the win.

Forwards and Defensemen Rankings

How to Interpret C/D/W charts: In NHL DFS, I think it's most important to look at peripheral stats instead of goals which is why I put so much emphasis on shots. This includes shot attempts, high danger shot attempts (those shot attempts closest to the net with the highest probability of going into the net), and shots on goal. I've included projections and average fantasy points to see how each compares so you can more easily find value.

Center

My Favorite

Auston Matthews - TOR (DK: $9000, FD: $9000)

Same song. Great matchup vs Ottawa tonight and Toronto's game last night was underwhelming, so I think it drops ownership on Matthews tonight.

Wing

My Favorite:

Cam Atkinson - CLS (DK: $5800, FD: $6400)

I told you I like Columbus tonight and Nashville is not good. For me, it starts with Cam Atkinson. This issue becomes if and how am I going to stack Columbus with Cam. Their coach has put their forward lines through the blender at times, so I will probably look for power play correlation.

Defensemen

My Favorite

Jakob Chychrun - ARI (DK: $5800, FD: $4900)

A great bargain on FanDuel, but still a good play on DraftKings. The Yotes often go overlooked in DFS, which means lower ownership. In a decent matchup against LA tonight as well.

Bottom of the Barrel

Here are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Lars Eller: WAS - C (DK: $2.6K, FD: $3.7K)

Jake DeBrusk: BOS - W (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.4K)

Damon Severson: NJD - D (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4.3K)

Line Stacks

Here are my ranked stacks for tonight:

Favorite Stacks Tonight:

Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stacks:

DFS Strategy - Somewhere between LOCK and FADE

9-game slate tonight, which typically means that it keeps ownership down. However, you can always expect that when teams like Toronto and Boston are on the slate, they're going to get ownership, regardless of matchup. At the time of this writing, here are how teams rank for me overall tonight.

I think that in a lot of ways, NHL DFS plays similar to MLB DFS. We talk a lot about variance and you'll often see me repeat the gospel in the chat of "what's supposed to happen usually don't." I think this is important to remember.

For me, I like to do a few builds (both by hand and using the optimizer) to see what fits well together and what pops up a lot. I've found that the easier something fits in a lineup, the more people will gravitate towards that kind of build. I think that's important to remember, especially on a larger slate.

Does that mean you should fade Toronto? Absolutely not, but I am proposing something in-between a lock and a fade. For example, if Toronto is my top stack and I think they're going to get a lot of ownership, I'll lower projections or cap their percentage in my lineups. It's not a full fade. I will have some shares, but I'll probably be even or under the field.

This is something that I've done a lot in MLB. I'll get teams like the Dodgers or Coors in my lineups and I've done really well when the popular teams bust and an under-the-radar Arizona team comes through as the stack of the night. It's like the old Bales quote: "How can I benefit most, when others are wrong?"

But... what do you think?

Disclaimer: Keep in mind, plays and thoughts listed are my own. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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