Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Check out the NHL Season Preview & Strategy Guide

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.

ICYMI - The NHL Season Preview & Strategy guide goes over the basics of NHL DFS and what I look for when researching players.

ICYMI2 - Tonight's game between Nashville and Dallas has been postponed. Stay warm and safe out there, friends.

We have a couple more teams coming back to action after being shut down due to COVID protocols. Do I change my approach? Read below.

But first, let's dive into tonight's slate.

Tonight's Slate

Here's numbers on the teams from their past 10 games. Generally, I start my research by looking for teams in good spots. For example, teams that score goals (GF60) that are facing teams that give up goals (GA60). I also look at teams that shoot a lot (CF60) that are facing teams that give up a lot of shots (CA60).

Legend: CF% = Corsi For Percentage, CF60 = Corsi For Per60 min, CA = Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, HDCF60 = High Danger Corsi For Per 60 Min, HDCA60 = High Danger Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, SF60 = Shots on Goal For Per 60 Min, SA60 = Shots on Goal Allowed Per 60 Min, SOT = % of Shot Attempts On Goal, Sh% = % of Shots on Goal That Are Goals, SCF60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60 Min, SCA60 = Scoring Chances Allowed Per 60 Min, GF60 = Goals For Per 60 Min, GA60 = Goals Allowed Per 60.

Goaltender Rankings

How to Interpret This: I've added LineStar Projected Ownership, LineStar Projected Fantasy Points, and Goalie GAA (Goals Saved Above Average), and Saves/60, along with my projected upside for each goalie. Generally, I'm looking for goalies that I think will get a win with a positive (green) GSAA and a high saves number.

As always - double-check that your goalie is starting before the game starts.

My Favorite:

Connor Hellebuyck - WPG (DK: $7600, FD: $7900) *CONFIRMED STARTER*

I expect Lankinen to be popular due to the matchup, but for me, I don't think that's the play tonight. Detroit doesn't take a lot of shots, so it really wouldn't surprise me to see Hellebuyck outscore him. I'd rather take the cost savings and lower ownership

Forwards and Defensemen Rankings

How to Interpret C/D/W charts: In NHL DFS, I think it's most important to look at peripheral stats instead of goals which is why I put so much emphasis on shots. This includes shot attempts, high danger shot attempts (those shot attempts closest to the net with the highest probability of going into the net), and shots on goal. I've included projections and average fantasy points to see how each compares so you can more easily find value.

Center

My Favorite

Auston Matthews - TOR (DK: $8900, FD: $8800)

Not a lot to say here. Great matchup. Huge ceiling. He will be the chalk.

Wing

My Favorite:

Nikolaj Ehlers - WPG (DK: $6700, FD: $6900)

Really into WPG2 for tonight. Ehlers has great shot volume and is priced well and will probably go underowned compared to WPG2.

Defensemen

My Favorite

Quinn Hughes - VAN (DK: $5300, FD: $5700)

I don't play a lot of one-offs in my lineups so I always think of who I can pair someone with. For me, if I'm playing Hughes, I'm probably going to look at Horvat as the Flames have been giving up 43.4 DK FPTS to the opposing top line over the last 5 games.

Bottom of the Barrel

Here are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Adam Lowry: WPG - C (DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.7K)

Nils Hoglander: VAN - W (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.7K)

Mark Staal: DET - D (DK: $2.5K, FD: $3.6K)

Line Stacks

Here are my ranked stacks for tonight:

Favorite Stacks Tonight:

Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stacks:

DFS Strategy - Building lineups for smaller slates

Tonight we get a small slate with some mismatches, so we can expect to see ownership follow my team rankings for tonight.

My approach for these smaller slates has been to lower the amount of correlation within my lineups and try to focus on playing the better players from each team. In other words, I do less even-strength line stacks and more power play unit or team stacks.

Also, remember that there's a lot of variance in hockey. Could Ottawa or Detroit score a few goals? Definitely. So I'll find myself pairing chalk stacks (TOR, EDM, WPG) with lesser owned stacks (OTT, DET, VAN) and hope that these lesser owned teams get some good bounces.

I also tend to deviate from my typical 3-3 and 4-3 stacks and get more lineups with 2-2-2 stacks or 4-4 (on FanDuel) or 5-2 (on DraftKings) stacks. I've found that getting a good variety of stack types in my lineup portfolio has done well for me.

But what do you think?

Disclaimer: Keep in mind, plays and thoughts listed are my own. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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