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- LineStar® Hat Trick 1/9 | C of Red
LineStar® Hat Trick 1/9 | C of Red
Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.
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Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.
Here's another look at my top 10 ranked players on the slate. This is my own sauce, but based on recent performance and matchup.
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Nothing should really be a surprise, but the reason why I'm doing this (and let me know if it helps) is just to point out the obvious good plays on the slate. I don't think anyone is ever a lock. Each of these players could take a slash or tweak something and be out the rest of the night - or worse, just skate around all night and avoid the puck. Basically, where I'm hoping to go with the newsletter is to start to identify who's the obvious plays on the night (that need little explanation) and find some of the players that could go overlooked but are in good spots tonight. Overall, just trying to give you all the info to make the best lineups you can.
With that said, let's dive in to today's slate. There are only three games on the slate, but I'm going to stick with the standard format. First, let's look at team numbers over the last 10 games from a high level:
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If you're new, let's do a quick rundown of what each of the columns represents (remember these are numbers over the past 10 games):
W = wins, L = losses (excluding OT losses), CF% = Corsi (shot attempts) For %, CF60 = Corsi for per 60 minutes, CA60 = Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, HDCF60 = High danger Corsi for per 60 minutes, HDCA60 = High danger Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, SF60 = shots for on net per 60 minutes, SA60 = shots on net allowed per 60 minutes, SV% = save percentage, SOT = shots on target (percentage of shots taken that hit the goal or go in), Sh% = shooting percentage (% of shots that become goals), SCF60 = scoring chances for per 60 minutes, SCA60 = scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes, PDO = Called SPSV% by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage, GF60 = goals for per 60 minutes, GA60 = goals allowed per 60 minutes, Avg = Projected goals (my projections) for the team, xTotal = projected over/under
Of course, if you have any additional thoughts or questions, be sure to hit me up in chat.
Slate News
I write this pretty early (in other words, before morning slate for most teams) but trying to bring you up to speed with anything you might have missed or could impact your lineups tonight.
Heads up - at the time of this writing, only Anders Nilsson has been confirmed.
🅿️ Pekka Rinne vs 🅿️ Collin Delia
🅿️ Semyon Varlamov vs 🅿️ David Rittich
✅ Anders Nilsson vs 🅿️ John Gibson
In injury news:
Brent Seabrook (CHI) will miss morning skate due to illness. Consider him GTD.
Keep an eye on chat for updates throughout the day.
Now, lets look at my favorites on the slate:
Goaltending
This is your starting point when playing cash games. You want a goalie that has a solid chance to get a win, but will also face a decent number of shots. North of 30 shots on net is ideal. Here are my three favorites that check those boxes tonight:
Collin Delia (vs NSH) (DK: $6.9K, FD: $7.9K)
Chicago has been playing better and I think Delia is one of the best options on the slate. He has a 2.20 GAA and .947 Save% over the past month. It's a tough matchup, but Delia is cheap and on a 3-game slate, he's worth taking a chance on.
John Gibson, ANH (vs OTT) (DK: $8.2K, FD: $7.9K)
Gibson was no good last time out against Edmonton, but I still think he's one of the most talented goalies in the league. His numbers have been decent (2.6 GAA and .915 Save%) but I like the home matchup against an Ottawa team that has won only 1 game out of their last 10.
David Rittich, CGY (vs COL) (DK: $8K, FD: $7.8K)
Every time I mention BIG SAVE DAVE he seems to let in a bunch of goals. But the Avs have been struggling - not exactly at scoring goals, but keeping them out of their own net. Rittich has been decent (2.40 GAA and .919 Save%) over the past month, but I mostly like him for the win equity tonight.
#BiscuitInTheBasketWatchList 🚨
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For those of you who aren’t familiar with hockey, “biscuit in the basket” is a term for scoring a goal. Here I’m going to give a center, wing, and defensemen for the top and value pricing tiers that I think has a good chance to score a goal. Remember - I gave some tips last week on numbers that I look for, and these players check most (if not all my boxes):
Jonathan Toews: CHI - C (DK: $5.4K, FD: $6.8K)
Ignoring MacKinnon and Monahan, Toews is my favorite C on the slate. He's averaging 4.2 shot attempts (1.4 high danger) and 3 shots on net in 22 minutes of ice time over his last 5 games.
Mark Stone: OTT- W (DK: $6.2K, FD: $7.3K)
Again, let's toss Colorado and Calgary out of the equation and Stone becomes my favorite winger tonight. In 22 minutes of ice time, he's averaging 4.4 shot attempts (1.2 high danger) with 2.8 shots on net over his last 5 games.
Mark Giordano: CGY - D (DK: $6.3K, FD: $6.3K)
Giordano is a leading Norris candidate this season. Lately, he's been averaging just over 25 minutes a game with 4.8 shot attempts and 2.6 shots on net a game over his last 5 games.
Value Twigs 💲
Similar to the biscuit-in-the-basket watch list, in this section I’ll provide a center, wing, and defensemen who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.
Mikael Backlund: CGY - C (DK: $5.2K, FD: $5.3K)
The second line for Calgary goes overlooked with the top line performing as it has, but I think if you want to differentiate, Backlund is a decent move. He's averaging 3 shots on net a game over his last 5 games and gets time on the second powerplay unit.
Brandon Saad: CHI - W (DK: $4K, FD: $4.5K)
Saad is a great value play today. He's been averaging 4.4 shot attempts (1.4 high danger) with 3 shots on net a night over his last 5 games.
Mattias Ekholm: NSH - D (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4.7K)
Ekholm is usually good for a couple shots and a couple blocks a night, gets 23+ minutes a night, and gets time on the second powerplay unit. That checks my boxes for what I look for in a value D.
Bottom of the Barrel
I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot tonight.
Ryan Kesler ANH - C (DK: $3K, FD: $4K)
Pontus Aberg: ANH - W (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.9K)
Cody Ceci: OTT - D (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.9K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines.
I'm going to list two of the the highest-projected owned stacks, two of my favorite stacks, and two "biscuit" (high risk, high reward) stacks:
High-Ownership (Based on LineStar Ownership Projections):
COL: Landeskog-Mackinnon-Rantanen (DK: $22.2K, FD: $23.6K)
CGY: Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm (DK: $21.6K, FD: $24.1K)
Favorite stacks:
CHI: Anisimov-Strome-Kane (DK: $15.6K FD: $17.6K)
OTT: Tkachuk-Colin White-Mark Stone (DK: $15.1K FD: $15.7K)
Biscuit stacks (high risk, high upside):
NSH: Fiala-Sissons-Smith (DK: $13.2K FD: $14.3K)
ANH: Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg (DK: $10.2K FD: $11.7K)
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.