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- LineStar® Hat Trick 1/4 | Finishing the week on a high note
LineStar® Hat Trick 1/4 | Finishing the week on a high note
Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.
Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.
Last night was a lot better. Bruins, Canes, and Bolts all came through for me. Last newsletter of the week so let's keep it hot.
We get another 7-game slate, which is becoming my favorite kind of slate to play. A lot of top lines playing tonight so I'd worry less about ownership and just build the best lineup you can.
With that said, let's dive in to today's slate. First, let's look at team numbers over the last 10 games from a high level:
If you're new, let's do a quick rundown of what each of the columns represents (remember these are numbers over the past 10 games):
W = wins, L = losses (excluding OT losses), CF% = Corsi (shot attempts) For %, CF60 = Corsi for per 60 minutes, CA60 = Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, HDCF60 = High danger Corsi for per 60 minutes, HDCA60 = High danger Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, SF60 = shots for on net per 60 minutes, SA60 = shots on net allowed per 60 minutes, SV% = save percentage, SOT = shots on target (percentage of shots taken that hit the goal or go in), Sh% = shooting percentage (% of shots that become goals), SCF60 = scoring chances for per 60 minutes, SCA60 = scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes, PDO = Called SPSV% by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage, GF60 = goals for per 60 minutes, GA60 = goals allowed per 60 minutes, Avg = Projected goals (my projections) for the team, xTotal = projected over/under
Of course, if you have any additional thoughts or questions, be sure to hit me up in chat.
Heads up - at the time of this writing, a few goalies have NOT been confirmed. Keep an eye on chat for updates throughout the day.
✅ Connor Hellebuyck vs ✅ Matt Murray
✅ Pekka Rinne vs 🅿️ Jimmy Howard
✅ Sergei Bobrovsky vs 🅿️ Curtis McElhinney
🅿️ Pheonix Copley vs ✅ Anton Khudobin
✅ Mackenzie Blackwood vs ✅ Darcy Kuemper
✅ Alexandar Georgiev vs ✅ Philipp Grubauer
🅿️ Marc-Andre Fleury vs 🅿️ John Gibson
Minimal injury news for tonight. Jamie Benn (DAL) is out tonight. Max Pacioretty (VGK) is a GTD.
Now, lets look at my favorites on the slate:
Goaltending
This is your starting point when playing cash games. You want a goalie that has a solid chance to get a win, but will also face a decent number of shots. North of 30 shots on net is ideal. Here are my three favorites that check those boxes tonight:
Phoenix Copley (@ DAL) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $8.2K)
Copley has played well over the last month. He has a 1.75 GAA and a .944 Save% and is facing a Dallas team that will be without Jamie Benn tonight.
Sergei Bobrovsky, CLS (@ CAR) (DK: $8.2K, FD: $8.6K)
I almost always play Bobrovsky because I think he's one of the most talented goaltenders in the league. He's been solid over the last month with a 2.00 GAA and a .928 Save%. He gets a tough matchup against the Canes tonight, but I see a lot of upside as Carolina is averaging 61.6 shot attempts and 32.4 shots on net over their last 10 games.
John Gibson, ANH (vs VGK) (DK: $7.9K, FD: $8.1K)
Same narrative as Bobrovsky. Gibson is talented and faces a lot of shots each night and has decent numbers over the past month (2.27 GAA and .919 Save%.
#BiscuitInTheBasketWatchList 🚨
For those of you who aren’t familiar with hockey, “biscuit in the basket” is a term for scoring a goal. Here I’m going to give a center, wing, and defensemen for the top and value pricing tiers that I think has a good chance to score a goal. Remember - I gave some tips last week on numbers that I look for, and these players check most (if not all my boxes):
Nathan MacKinnon: COL - C (DK: $8.1K, FD: $8.7K)
MacKinnon hasn't had a ceiling game in a while, but he's been consistent for his salary. Still my favorite on the night, as he has a 60 CF% and is averaging 7.8 shot attempts (1.8 high danger) with 5 shots on net over his last 5 games and gets a good matchup against Georgiev and the Rangers tonight at home.
Viktor Arvidsson: NSH - W (DK: $7K, FD: $6.7K)
If you've watched Nashville play without Arvidsson and with Arvidsson, you've noticed there's a huge difference, which is why Arvidsson is my favorite winger tonight. Arvidsson has been averaging 7.5 shot attempts (1.3 high danger) and 3.8 shots on net over his last 5 games.
Roman Josi: NSH - D (DK: $6.4K, FD: $6.3K)
If you've been reading the newsletter for a while, you know that I look for D on the top powerplay unit, get over 23 minutes a game, shoot the puck a lot, and block a shot or two. Josi checks those boxes tonight and is averaging 6.8 shot attempts, 3 shots on net, and 1.8 blocks a game over his last 5 games.
Value Twigs 💲
Similar to the biscuit-in-the-basket watch list, in this section I’ll provide a center, wing, and defensemen who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.
Nico Hischier: NJ C (DK: $5.2K, FD: $5.4K)
So Darcy Kuemper is starting for Arizona tonight. Kuemper has a 3.14 GAA and .900 Save% over the past month. That's not good, which is why I have a lot of interest in New Jersey tonight. Hischier doesn't shoot the puck a lot (2.2 shots on net over his last 5), but I like his line a lot tonight and think he stands a good chance of getting an assist or two if he doesn't tap one in.
Gustav Nyquist: DET - W (DK: $4.7K, FD: $5.7K)
Maybe my model is broken, but Nyquist rates really high for me today. He's been averaging 6 shot attempts (1.8 high danger) with 3.4 shots on net over his last 5 games and plays on the top line and top power play unit for Detroit.
Miro Heiskanen: DAL - D (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.6K)
Heiskanen is a stud. In 21 minutes of ice time over his last 5 games he's averaging 7 shot attempts, 4.4 shots on net, and 1.2 blocks.
Bottom of the Barrel
I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot tonight.
Radek Faksa: DAL- C (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.7K)
Miles Wood: NJ - W (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.3K)
Brayden McNabb: VGK - D (DK: $3.2K, FD: $3.6K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines.
I'm going to list two of the the highest-projected owned stacks, two of my favorite stacks, and two "biscuit" (high risk, high reward) stacks:
High-Ownership (Based on LineStar Ownership Projections):
CLS: Panarin-Dubois-Atkinson (DK: $21K, FD: $22K)
COL: Landeskog-Mackinnon-Rantanen(DK: $23K, FD: $23.2K)
Favorite stacks:
VGK: Marchessault-Karlsson-Smith (DK: $17.2K FD: $19.4K)
PIT: Guentzel-Crosby-Rust (DK: $18.6K FD: $21.7K)
Biscuit stacks (high risk, high upside):
NYR: Kreider-Zibanejad-Fast (DK: $13.8K FD: $16.3K)
ANH: Ritchie-Henrique-Kase (DK: $12.6K FD: $12.5K)
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.