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- LineStar® Hat Trick 12/9 | DeBrusk Discount Day
LineStar® Hat Trick 12/9 | DeBrusk Discount Day
Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.
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![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/7103cf1e-9d33-4a96-8c6b-aa359f6c49d8/f0b930c6a874e6c22158bc4e58919c9b.gif)
Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.
In case you missed it. Jake DeBrusk is priced at $540 on FanDuel today. That's no misprint. He's five hundred and forty dollars. ($4500 on DraftKings), making him the free square tonight.
That begs the question: How do we approach tonight?
Personally, I'm not playing FanDuel tonight. We have a small 4-game slate with top-tier players from Tampa, Washington, Boston, and Colorado, so the initial reaction might be to play DeBrusk and fill your lineup with as many studs as possible. If you're playing cash games, I think that makes sense. I don't think it makes sense to fade a player that could be 80%+ owned in cash games. You're at a huge disadvantage if he has even a decent night.
On the other hand, if you're playing GPP, I think he's worth fading, if even in a percentage of your lineups. It's more likely that what's supposed to happen won't and the lineup at the top of the leaderboard will have a weird Columbus/Calgary stack.
What do you guys think? How are you handling DeBrusk Monday? Join us and help us figure out this slate in LineStar Chat
Tonight's Targets
Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.
You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg." This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/22e9ee7d-e246-42e6-8fd4-7d37c8a35401/cb3386064f4c35f5d8ee38fd45290b29.png)
First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):
W and L: Wins and Losses
CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes
HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.
SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.
SOT: Percentage of shots on target .
Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.
SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes
GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.
I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.
Now let's dig into this slate.
Goaltenders
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/b230f47b-af41-4f7d-beb9-61f0694c78bb/09090b90ecb2d5c404074fdf838e7e12.png)
Pavel Francouz - COL (DK: $8100, FD: $7800)
I'm getting a ton of Francouz in my lineups so far. Rask is next, but it's not even close. Francouz has been outstanding over the past month with a 1.00 GAA and a .959 Save%. Colorado is favored and this should be a popular option tonight.
Centers
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/0e009d71-7443-46a2-a5e7-2afaf0d26170/54472efd7bd475afb4f9e764b6ea9be8.png)
Nathan MacKinnon - COL (DK: $8300, FD: $9000)
I don't tend to purposely correlate the goalie with one of my players, but I think Francouz + MacKinnon isn't a terrible idea tonight. With DeBrusk as a free square tonight on FanDuel, I think this should bump up ownership as well.
Wingers
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/5bb19b65-70e4-4c28-b48d-42af41701706/e0b7d24f214cb5a2a43faebe2e10b8ec.png)
Nikita Kucherov - TBL (DK: $7800, FD: $8300)
I think Kucherov + Killorn could be another solid combo tonight. I like Tampa a lot against a Chicago team that can't keep the puck out of the net recently.
Defensemen
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/756df2ac-3f89-4f74-b375-c62d993e7a58/2a70f19ef4af8d47a642b01edcdde882.png)
Seth Jones - CLS (DK: $5300, FD: $5100)
If you plan on spending up for MacKinnon and Kucherov, you're probably going to have to spend down at D. I think Seth Jones is one of the best options. His shot volume is similar to that of Hedman or Carlson, but at a solid discount.
If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.
With DFS, I try to think of these things:
Who makes the most sense to play?
Where is the field leaning?
Who has been the most consistent?
Who has the most upside?
Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?
Bottom of the Barrel
Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.
J.T. Compher: COL - C (DK: $4K, FD: $4.4K)
Alex Killorn: TB - W (DK: $3.3K, FD: $5.1K)
Dmitri Orlov: WAS - D (DK: $3.6K, FD: $4.3K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.
Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/048d498b-7003-4f58-9176-405e73b40413/e9611cbf4cacc0ada53af52fef7c3531.png)
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.
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