Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Check out the NHL Season Preview & Strategy Guide

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.

ICYMI - The NHL Season Preview & Strategy guide goes over the basics of NHL DFS and what I look for when building lineups.

Today - I want to start to touch on contest selection. I plan on getting more into what makes a contest good to enter versus not, but now I just want to talk about my general philosphy to contest selection. This, I think, is one of the most overlooked aspects of DFS. Something that I always think is worth doing is looking at individual contests and making note of:

• Percentage of entries that gets paid

• Min cash value

• Percentage of the prize pool to first

• The amount of drop off between 1st and 10th place prize.

Using the below contest as an example, you can see that payout structures are not great. This contest only pays 1.5x of your entry fee if you min cash (2x is ideal.). There's also a fairly steep drop off between 1st and 10th place prizes. Unfortunately, this is fairly normal. The upside, of course, is that for a $80 entry fee ($4x 20) to max enter this contest, there's pretty good upside if you can bink it.

My personal preference is to stack contests and play each lineup through multiple contests. If you're playing 1-5 entries, I think it makes sense to put each lineup in a double-up, triple-up, and a couple of GPP entries. When looking for GPP contests, I like to wait and see what contests respawn closer to lock. Generally, DraftKings will open up smaller versions of the larger field GPPs. I like to play these in addition to taking a chance in a larger field GPP. Overall, when I'm entering lineups, I want to think about how I can best be rewarded if I have a good lineup? In a large field GPP, I might not crack the top 50. However, in a smaller field GPP, I might get a top 5 spot. So that's why I like to spread each lineup across multiple contests instead of just one.

Again, any questions or things you'd like to see in upcoming newsletters? Hit me up in chat!

Tonight's Slate

Here's numbers on the teams so far this season. Generally, I start my research by looking for teams in good spots. For example, teams that score goals (GF60) that are facing teams that give up goals (GA60). I also look at teams that shoot a lot (CF60) that are facing teams that give up a lot of shots (CA60).

Legend: CF% = Corsi For Percentage, CF60 = Corsi For Per60 min, CA = Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, HDCF60 = High Danger Corsi For Per 60 Min, HDCA60 = High Danger Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, SF60 = Shots on Goal For Per 60 Min, SA60 = Shots on Goal Allowed Per 60 Min, SOT = % of Shot Attempts On Goal, Sh% = % of Shots on Goal That Are Goals, SCF60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60 Min, SCA60 = Scoring Chances Allowed Per 60 Min, GF60 = Goals For Per 60 Min, GA60 = Goals Allowed Per 60.

Goaltender Rankings

How to Interpret This: I've added LineStar Projected Ownership, LineStar Projected Fantasy Points, and Goalie GAA (Goals Saved Above Average), and Saves/60, along with my projected upside for each goalie. Generally, I'm looking for goalies that I think will get a win with a positive (green) GSAA and a high saves number.

As always - double-check that your goalie is starting before the game starts.

My Favorite:

Anton Khudobin - DAL (DK: $8500, FD: $8100) *CONFIRMED STARTER*

Hard to believe I'm writing up Khudobin, but Dallas has come out and played really well so far this season. Detroit is still Detroit, so I'm going to expect a win bonus from this one.

How to Interpret C/D/W charts: In NHL DFS, I think it's most important to look at peripheral stats instead of goals which is why I put so much emphasis on shots. This includes shot attempts, high danger shot attempts (those shot attempts closest to the net with the highest probability of going into the net), and shots on goal. I've included projections and average fantasy points to see how each compares so you can more easily find value.

My Favorite

Aleksander Barkov - FLA (DK: $6900, FD: $7100)

A tougher matchup with Korpisalo in net, but Florida has been playing well and Columbus gives up a lot of shot attempts, including 10 high-danger shot attempts per game.

Winger Rankings

My Favorite:

Mikael Granlund - MIN (DK: $3300, FD: $4700)

I've been targeting Chicago every time Malcolm Subban is in the net and tonight is no exception. I have lots of interest in Nashville, and Granlund is really cheap tonight and makes a good pivot if you can't afford NSH1 in your lineups.

Defensemen Rankings

My Favorite

Ryan Ellis - NSH (DK: $5700, FD: $5300)

Ellis has been pretty consistent so far this season and is still reasonably priced so he'll be a staple in my lineups tonight.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers", but these are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or power play unit. It could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Joel Eriksson Ek: MIN - C (DK: $4.2K, FD: $4.5K)

Nikita Gusev: NJD - W (DK: $3.7K, FD: $3.6K)

Justin Faulk: STL - D (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.9K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Here are my ranked stacks for tonight:

Favorite Stacks Tonight:

Top-Projected Owned Stacks:

Again - this isn't an invitation to fade any of these lines. If you're playing GPP, you could pretty comfortably stack one of these top-owned stacks with a biscuit stack and get a fairly unique lineup.

Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stacks:

How I'm Approaching Tonight

I've built about 100 lineups to see where I'm sitting with everything. Right now, I'm projecting Dallas, Florida, Winnipeg, Colorado, and Minnesota to be the highest scoring teams on tonight, so I'll probably adjust to get higher percentages of those players and stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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