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- LineStar® Hat Trick 12/6 | Five-Game Friday
LineStar® Hat Trick 12/6 | Five-Game Friday
Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.
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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.
Something I noticed last night, and this appears to be a trend for me, is that when playing multiple sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc), I typically do well on one site, but not on the other. For example, last night I did really well on FanDuel but not so great on DraftKings. For the most part, I stacked the same teams, but there's certainly going to be a difference in my secondary stacks and fillers due to salary constraints and lineup differences (UTIL spot in DraftKings vs 4 W in FanDuel).
Where I'm going with this is that I think it can be beneficial to play multiple sites. You may find that you consistently do better in one over the other. It can also help you mentally by winning on one site instead of taking a huge L on the one and only site you're on.
The challenge, of course, becomes that you're spending at least twice as much time researching and building lineups. If you're like me and sometimes end up getting lineups in at the very last second before lock, you might need to change your process slightly so that you're building lineups earlier. There's not much worse in DFS than missing lock and ending up with empty or dummy lineups.
The good thing with NHL is that there's not often a lot of late news or scratches. What I typically do is build lineups over lunch. Not dummy lineups to reserve contests, but what I would consider real lineups that I would play if lock was at the end of my lunch break. With this, I'm better set up to be successful if something comes up before lock.
What do you guys think? Do you play on multiple sites? Join us and help us figure out this slate in LineStar Chat
Tonight's Targets
Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.
You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg." This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.
First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):
W and L: Wins and Losses
CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.
HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.
SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).
SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.
Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.
SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes
GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).
I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.
Now let's dig into this slate.
Goaltenders
Henrik Lundqvist - NYR (DK: $8000, FD: $7500)
Lundqvist is a much better bargain on FanDuel, but I still have healthy shares of Lundqvist tonight. He hasn't been great recently, but he should see 30+ shots. This could go up if NYR takes the lead which could push him close to that important 35+ save bonus on DraftKings
🚨 Update - Alexandar Georgiev is now starting.
Centers
Evgeni Malkin - PIT (DK: $6800, FD: $8500)
Malkin has a tougher matchup tonight, but I like his price on DraftKings. The upside with Malkin is that Arizona has allowed a slate worst 65.9 Corsi/game over the last 10 games.
Wingers
Taylor Hall- NJD (DK: $6600, FD: $7300)
I really like Hall here more as a one-off than in a stack. He's still one of the most talented players in the league and gets a good matchup against a Chicago team that has been giving up 3.8 goals over their last 5 games.
Defensemen
Oscar Klefbom - EDM (DK: $6000, FD: $5900)
Klefbom checks all the boxes for me today for a defenseman: 23+ minutes on ice, 3+ shots a game, and power play minutes on the top powerplay unit.
If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.
With DFS, I try to think of these things:
Who makes the most sense to play?
Where is the field leaning?
Who has been the most consistent?
Who has the most upside?
Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?
Bottom of the Barrel
Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.
Dylan Strome: CHI - C (DK: $3.9K, FD: $5K)
Alex Galchenyuk: PIT - W (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4.8K)
Adam Fox: NYR - D (DK: $4.1K, FD: $4K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.
Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.
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