Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

I don't have anything really new for today. Something that I'm really working on is trying to adjust my process for smaller slates vs larger slates - especially on a slate like this with several teams and players that could be the chalk on much larger slate. I think their ownership will be amplified on this smaller slate.

So far, my approach to smaller slates is to go one of two directions: all in on a stack or team and hoping I hit the nuts, or sprinkling the love around and hoping I crack the code through throwing darts. Either way, I'm just trying to be a little different from the crowd that tends to run a lot of 3-3 or 4-3 stacks and do 5-2 (not possible on FD) or 2-2-2 stacks.

Anyone do anything similar? Let me know what you think.

Also, I'm happy to see more new faces jumping into chat. Join us and help us figure out this slate in LineStar Chat

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.

You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg." This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

• SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Jordan Binnington - STL (DK: $7600, FD: $8900)

I feel like Koskinen and Samsonov will be the most popular choices and I don't really like either. Instead, I'm going to take a stand, play with fire, and stick with Binnington.

Centers

Connor McDavid - EDM (DK: $8200, FD: $9000)

For me, it comes down to MacKinnon vs McDavid at center today. MacKinnon should be higher owned, but McDavid ranks higher for me.

Wingers

William Nylander - TOR (DK: $5800, FD: $5900)

Colorado has a history of allowing a high number of shots, so I want someone with a high shot volume, especially on DraftKings for that important shot bonus.

Defensemen

Kris Letang - PIT (DK: $5800, FD: $6800)

His matchup kind of sucks, and I know I mentioned that I like Binnington, but Letang is my top-ranked defenseman tonight. He's been shooting the puck a ton (I mentioned that I'm looking for shot volume tonight), and gets a ton of minutes. If Binnington breaks, Letang should benefit.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Jared McCann: PIT - C (DK: $4K, FD: $4.6K)

Tyler Toffoli: LAK - W (DK: $4.1K, FD: $4.3K)

Darnell Nurse: EDM - D (DK: $4.4K, FD: $4K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

I did something new with the stacks. I'm using a graph to show how the LineStar projections compare between the players on the stacks. For example, if you look at the Edmonton line of Neal, McDavid, and Archibald, you can see at a glance that McDavid is basically projected higher than Neal and Archibald combined. This can be useful if you're looking to stack only two of the three skaters.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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