Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick and Happy Forsberg Tuesday.

I know I've warned against this in chat before, but today I want to talk about hindsighting a slate. For me, this can be important because it can help me with a few important things in DFS:

• Finding data that correlates with player production

• Understanding how winning lineups arrived on those stacks players

• Using the Sports Almanac to see how we can maximize profits when we are right

One of the first things I'll look at is going back to a previous slate and sorting by Scored. In this case, I also filter the position by UTIL so that I'm only looking at skaters and excluding goalies from this. (Goalies I tend to look at separately).

Looking at the top three scorers from last night, only one really makes sense to me. Eichel ranked really high for me yesterday, and if you look at his numbers over the last 5 games and the numbers for NJ over the last 5, it's a bit of a no-brainer.

Ok - so let's use the time machine and play Eichel and see how we do. For me, I prefer to stack, so I go into the Stack Finder, filter by Buffalo, and sort by projected. I like the first option as they're all on the top powerplay unit as well and are reasonably priced together at $18K.

If you click the "robot arm" icon on the bottom left of the stack, it will add that stack to the builder. Pick your favorite model and settings and go.

Here, you can see the lineups you get as well as what the actual score would have been. Let's say you played the $1 Hip Check on DraftKings last night. The winning score was 183.1 in that contest and the pay line was 119.8. Looking at the scores we're getting (and it looks like goalies may be missing win and shutout bonuses), you can see we're not killing the slate, as my top score was 131. Keep in mind, I just picked a Buffalo stack and pulled the slot machine handle. You could exclude/include stacks or players based on your process. My point for all of this is that even with a time machine, it's not exactly easy to win it all.

While you're at it, I hope you're taking notes on the slate as well. Personally, I keep a record of teams and players that grade well, teams and players that I think the field will target, and decisions I make. It's a lot easier to see patterns of bias or relying too much on a single data point if you have a record to refer back to.

Let me know if you find this useful and share your thoughts in LineStar Chat.

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.

You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg." This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

• SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Connor Hellebuyck - WPG (DK: $7600, FD: $8400)

Hellebuyck has a tough matchup tonight, but he should face a ton of shots which will hopefully help negate points lost if he lets in a few goals.

Centers

Brayden Point - TBL (DK: $6400, FD: $7600)

I really like Tampa tonight. Rinne has been shaky at times this year and I think I want to stack against him with Tampa 1.

Wingers

J.T. Miller - VAN (DK: $5400, FD: $6300)

Miller is priced pretty well for someone averaging over 3 shots on net and 22 minutes a game while getting time on the top line and power play unit. He's cheap enough too that you can probably make a viable lineup while also playing a top-tier winger like Pastrnak or Ovechkin

Defensemen

Seth Jones - CLS (DK: $5200, FD: $5200)

On a slate like this, I want to spend up for my stacks, so I need defensemen that are reasonably priced, but also have upside. Seth Jones is on the top line and gets powerplay time. For DraftKings, he stands a good chance at getting the blocked shot bonus as well.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Ryan Johansen: NSH - C (DK: $4.1K, FD: $5.3K)

Oliver Bjorkstrand: CLS - W (DK: $4.4K, FD: $5.3K)

Quinn Hughes: VAN - D (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.7K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks. Along with these stacks you can compare their prices, see how LineStar projects them, as well as their combined average fantasy points per game over the last 5 games.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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