Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

In a continuation of the last week, I want to start talking about back testing strategies. Often, we get ideas of things to try: new strategies or approaches that may differentiate our lineups just enough to put us at the top.

The problem is, so many of us do this with money at stake. Sure, if it works, it can pay off nicely. But what about when it doesn't? Do you really want to spend a week's worth of entries trying a new strategy? Some strategies might take more than a week and the key to remember is that nothing works every day or even once a week. It may be a matter of finding a strategy that can bink once a month. Think about it this way, if you had a strategy that could give you a 4 or 5-figure boost to your bankroll once a month, would that be worth it to you?

Hence, the need for backtesting. Simply put, this is trying out strategies on past slates to see both what the top score you can get as well as how many lineups above a target score. I think both are important. Not only do we want to bink a tournament, but I think we also want to get as many of our lineups across the pay line as possible.

If you're only running a single lineup, I think this can be useful as well in terms of finding stats, filters, or settings in the tool that can make your research and line building both more efficient as well as more lucrative.

What do you think? Is this something any of you are doing right now? Any struggles or lessons learned? Share your thoughts in LineStar Chat.

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.

You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg." This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

• SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Corey Crawford - CHI (DK: $7400, FD: $7600)

One of my favorite plays is chasing a good goalie that got blown up his last time out. In fairness to Crawford, he did get shelled against Colorado. Still, I think he has a chance (albeit small) to bounce back against St Louis tonight. It's a small slate and I just don't feel like spending up for the likes of Varlamov or Binnington.

Centers

Dylan Larkin - DET (DK: $5700, FD: $6300)

For me, Larkin is a case of looking for talent over team standings. Also, I mentioned before, I don't like Varlamov tonight. He's been shaky at times, and I think you get the upside of Eichel in a much cheaper price.

Wingers

Alex DeBrincat - CHI (DK: $6000, FD: $6100)

Something that I've found from time to time in NHL DFS is that if a certain player stands out, it can be more beneficial to play or stack his linemates. In this case, Kane is far and away my top ranked Winger on this slate. However, I think DeBrincat stands to benefit the most from Kane having a good game, which is why I like him paired with Kane or as a one-off if you can't fit Kane in your lineup.

Defensemen

Ryan Pulock - NYI (DK: $5000, FD: $4500)

One thing I've noticed with NYI over the past month is that for as good as they've been playing, they're not a high-event team in terms of fantasy points. Also, production has been spread out across their top 3 lines, which is why I'm probably going to focus more on defensemen from the Islanders in hopes of picking up an assist or two.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Adam Henrique: ANH - C (DK: $4.4K, FD: $4.7K)

Tyler Toffoli: LAK - W (DK: $4.2K, FD: $4.6K)

Adam Fox: VNYR - D (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4.4K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks. Along with these stacks you can compare their prices, see how LineStar projects them, as well as their combined average fantasy points per game over the last 5 games.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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