LineStar® Hat Trick 1/22 | Imagine winning $10K in NHL DFS

January 22, 2021

Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

ICYMI - The NHL Season Preview & Strategy guide goes over the basics of NHL DFS and what I look for when building lineups.

Big congrats to LineStar user Chosgood for taking first in the Fanduel $60K Thu Official NHL Breakaway ($10K to 1st) last night. That was an amazing lineup, and always good to see subscribers win!

Again, any questions or things you'd like to see in upcoming newsletters? Hit me up in chat!

Tonight's Slate

Here's numbers on the teams so far this season. Generally, I start my research by looking for teams in good spots. For example, teams that score goals (GF60) that are facing teams that give up goals (GA60). I also look at teams that shoot a lot (CF60) that are facing teams that give up a lot of shots (CA60).

Legend: CF% = Corsi For Percentage, CF60 = Corsi For Per60 min, CA = Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, HDCF60 = High Danger Corsi For Per 60 Min, HDCA60 = High Danger Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, SF60 = Shots on Goal For Per 60 Min, SA60 = Shots on Goal Allowed Per 60 Min, SOT = % of Shot Attempts On Goal, Sh% = % of Shots on Goal That Are Goals, SCF60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60 Min, SCA60 = Scoring Chances Allowed Per 60 Min, GF60 = Goals For Per 60 Min, GA60 = Goals Allowed Per 60.

Goaltender Rankings

How to Interpret This: I've added LineStar Projected Ownership, LineStar Projected Fantasy Points, and Goalie GAA (Goals Saved Above Average), and Saves/60, along with my projected upside for each goalie. Generally, I'm looking for goalies that I think will get a win with a positive (green) GSAA and a high saves number.

As always - double-check that your goalie is starting before the game starts.

My Favorite:

Juuse Saros - NSH (DK: $7800, FD: $7400) *EXPECTED STARTER*

Ok. I'm going a bit off the rails on this one. I really don't like any of the goalies in my rankings, but I will have some Griess, Talbot, and Koskinen paired with my DET, MIN, and EDM stacks. Saros has been solid so far this season and faces a Dallas team who is playing their first game this season.

How to Interpret C/D/W charts: In NHL DFS, I think it's most important to look at peripheral stats instead of goals which is why I put so much emphasis on shots. This includes shot attempts, high danger shot attempts (those shot attempts closest to the net with the highest probability of going into the net), and shots on goal. I've included projections and average fantasy points to see how each compares so you can more easily find value.

My Favorite

John Tavares - TOR (DK: $6600, FD: $8000)

Tavares grades highest for me tonight. Without Matthews in the lineup, I think the offense will need to come through the Tavares line tonight.

Winger Rankings

My Favorite:

Kevin Fiala - MIN (DK: $5600, FD: $6100)

Fiala ranks highest to me for wingers. He's priced reasonably, has great shot volume, and faces a Sharks team that is giving up 3.5 goals a game.

Defensemen Rankings

My Favorite

Shea Theodore - VGK (DK: $6100, FD: $6200)

I keep going back to the well with Theodore. It's hard not to like a D with the minutes and shot volume that he has.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers", but these are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or power play unit. It could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Joel Eriksson Ek: MIN - C (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4.2K)

Kevin Labanc: SJS - W (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4.1K)

Justin Holl: TOR - D (DK: $2.8K, FD: $3.7K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Here are my ranked stacks for tonight:

Favorite Stacks Tonight:

Top-Projected Owned Stacks:

Again - this isn't an invitation to fade any of these lines. If you're playing GPP, you could pretty comfortably stack one of these top-owned stacks with a biscuit stack and get a fairly unique lineup.

Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stacks:

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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