LineStar® Hat Trick 12/17 | HALL AND YOTES

Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

Shoutout to bha10 in chat for today's title.

In case you missed it, Taylor Hall was traded to the Arizona Coyotes yesterday. Now, maybe my old eyes are deceiving me, but I can't find Hall on FanDuel. What the heck? Anyway, if you're wondering why he's not in my list of top wingers for tonight, that's why.

Any questions on the slate tonight? Hit me up in LineStar Chat

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.

You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg." This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

  • W and L: Wins and Losses

  • CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

  • HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

  • SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

  • GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Cam Talbot - CGY (DK: $7700, FD: $7400)

It's always risky taking a goalie against the Penguins, but Talbot ranks really high for me tonight. I can't sell you on his numbers the past month with a not-so-great 3.67 GAA and .907 Save%, but he will almost certainly come in at low ownership and should see at least 30 shots on net.

Centers

Elias Pettersson - VAN (DK: $7100, FD: $7600)

Pettersson ranks really high for me and I love VAN2 as a full-line stack tonight.

Wingers

Alex Killorn - TBL (DK: $5200, FD: $5100)

Killorn and Stamkos rank high for me tonight. If you have the salary, I prefer Stamkos, but Killorn is a great play as well against an Ottawa team that is giving up 3.6 goals over their last 5 games.

Defensemen

Shea Theodore - VGK (DK: $5400, FD: $4800)

The question I keep asking myself for tonight is can I fit Theodore with Dougie or Josi? For the most part, I think so. With a huge slate tonight, I think there are some affordable 2nd and 3rd line stacks that can fit with a 1st line and both Theodore and Dougie.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Adam Henrique: ANH - C (DK: $4.2K, FD: $4.6K)

Tyler Johnson: TBL - W (DK: $4.2K, FD: $4.2K)

Oliver Ekman-Larsson: ARI - D (DK: $4.1K, FD: $4.5K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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