LineStar® Hat Trick 12/16 | Title Coming...

Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

If you're on iOS, LineStar has been pushing out some updates to beta that I'm pretty excited about when building lineups. I'm planning on doing some content around how and when to use them in the future. I will say that there have been some issues over the iterations of these updates that the current "live" version is the best to stick with for now.

I will say for the most part, I've been using the web version for ease of building and exporting multiple lineups, but I think the experience is getting better on the app and exporting/importing on mobile is getting easier as well. Good sign of things to come.

A little curious though in how you all build lineups. Do you primarily use the site or the app? Let me know in LineStar Chat

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.

You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg." This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

  • W and L: Wins and Losses

  • CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

  • HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

  • SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

  • GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Jordan Binnington - STL (DK: $7900, FD: $8700)

Shorter slate tonight, and I just feel like going against the grain and playing Binnington against the Avs. I can't imagine too many idiots like me playing the goalie facing the Avs and if he can keep the puck out of the net, there's a lot of leverage against the field.

Centers

Mika Zibanejad - NYR (DK: $6200, FD: $7700)

I'm getting a lot of Zibanejad in early builds and I think a lot has to do with his price. It's not a great matchup, as Nashville has done well in limiting shot attempts and holds a 60% CF%. On a larger slate I might pass, but NYR also makes up my biscuit stacks for tonight.

Wingers

Anthony Duclair - OTT (DK: $5700, FD: $5100)

My top-ranked winger for tonight. The numbers kind of speak for themselves and he comes in at a great price.

Defensemen

John Carlson - WAS (DK: $7500, FD: $7400)

One of the best options at D most nights and my top-ranked defenseman tonight.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Tyler Bozak: STL - C (DK: $3.2K, FD: $4K)

Kaapo Kakko: NYR - W (DK: $4.5K, FD: $5K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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