Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

I'm going to bring up something that gets talked about, but probably doesn't get talked about enough in DFS. I want to share some thoughts on contest selection and it's importance.

To start, I think one of the biggest DFS traps is the thinking of "I would have won $XXXX if I had played this contest." What I've seen happen is you have someone who plays $5-10 in entries a night and ends up playing three times or four times as much the next night because they're chasing last night's "what could have been." Most of you have seen that movie (or experienced it yourself) to know how that movie ends.

Everyone has their own measure of success in DFS. Sometimes, it's simply to just profit. If they put in $10, it's a good night if they get $10.01 in return. Others may be completely bink or bust. If they don't take down a GPP, the night is a bust. For most of us, I think we want to be somewhere in the middle.

For me, I'm shooting for a 2x return for a good night and a 5x return for a great night. In order for this to be possible, I need to take a hard look at the contests I'm entering that night and think about the probability that I can do this by taking into account:

• The number of lineups I'm playing

• The amount of money I'm putting into play

• The contest payout structure

The majority of contests on FanDuel and DraftKings are very top heavy. In other words, most of the contest winnings pay out to the top 10 spots and the minimum payout might not be even twice the entry fee. At the same time, let's be real. It's really hard to take down a contest with fields that are larger than the attendance at most of the actual games.

For me, I've tried to focus more on smaller field contests. You have to put a little more effort in searching for these contests as they're not very promoted, but on FanDuel there are 100-man contests that have a decent payout structure with limited entries. On DraftKings, contests fill and respawn throughout the day. I've found success finding smaller versions of their larger field GPPs closer to lock. Overall, I've had much better ROI in playing lower stacks, smaller field contests.

What do you all think? Have you paid close attention to the contests you're entering? Join us and help us figure out this slate in LineStar Chat

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.

You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg." This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

• SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Darcy Kuemper - ARI (DK: $8200, FD: $8800)

Kuemper has a 2.00 GAA and .941 Save% over the past month with 6 wins. Chicago has also been averaging just over 33 SOG over the past 5 games, so he's in a good spot to get the 35-save bonus on DraftKings.

Centers

Brock Nelson - NYI (DK: $5300, FD: $6100)

I really like Nelson as a one off tonight. I'm not really interested in stacking him unless I'm doing a power play line stack for the Islanders.

Wingers

Steven Stamkos - TBL (DK: $6300, FD: $8400)

Boston has been on a bit of a downswing recently. Tampa has let me down the last few nights from a DFS perspective, but I think it's worth going back to the well tonight with Stamkos, who pairs well with Killorn tonight. Both grade really well for me.

Defensemen

Erik Karlsson - SJS (DK: $5800, FD: $6600)

Karlsson grades really well for me tonight. Also, the Sharks fired head coach Peter DeBoer yesterday, so I kind of like that narrative as well.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Adam Henrique: ANH - C (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4.6K)

Jason Zucker: MIN - W (DK: $4.4K, FD: $5.9K)

Jakob Chychrun: ARI - D (DK: $4.4K, FD: $3.8K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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