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- LineStar® Hat Trick 12/12 | FLY FLYERS FLY!
LineStar® Hat Trick 12/12 | FLY FLYERS FLY!
Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.
Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.
Back to our regular NHL schedule of big slates on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday with leftovers on the other days. There's a four game slate tonight with plenty of top-tier players on the slate that I don't feel like there's going to be any definite chalk.
I've mentioned this before that I hate slates with Pittsburgh since any of the top two (or three?) lines could go off on any given night, and they play the miserable (sorry Chicago fans) Blackhawks tonight. I would expect Vegas and Calgary to be popular as well tonight, but with puck luck, it can usually pay off well to go with a top stack and get a little wild
That said, here's how all games look tonight from a high level.
Heads up - at the time of this writing, most goalies have NOT been confirmed. Keep an eye on chat for updates throughout the day.
✅ Marc-Andre Fleury vs ✅ Robin Lehner
🅿️ Casey DeSmith vs ✅ Corey Crawford
🅿️ Anthony Stolarz vs 🅿️ Mike Smith
🅿️ Ben Bishop vs 🅿️ John Gibson
In other news, Matt Murray was activated from IR and is expected to back up Casey DeSmith tonight.
Artem Anisimov has been placed on IR for the Blackhawks
Leo Komarov is GTD for the Islanders tonight.
Keep an eye on chat for updates throughout the day.
Now, lets look at my favorites on the slate:
Goaltending
So as most of you know, I'm a heavy GPP player. So I'm approaching goalie selection purely looking at upside for tonight. I'll be leaning heavily on goaltenders that will be facing a high volume of shots tonight, as they'll have some of the biggest upside if they can limit goals and pick up a win.
Here are my three favorite goaltenders on the night:
Casey DeSmith (@ CHI) (DK: $8.1K, FD: $8.3K)
Ok, I'll admit this is the obvious play at goalie for tonight. His numbers over the past month have been solid. And if you're looking for that win equity tonight, DeSmith is your dude.
John Gibson, ANH (vs DAL) (DK: $7.9K, FD: $8.5K)
On almost any given night, Gibson is the busiest in net. Anaheim is allowing 32.8 shots on net a night, which can always make for a good night if Gibson allows a goal or two and gets the win. I also like Gibson because I think he'll be passed over for DeSmith or Fleury since he's facing Dallas tonight. But Dallas is only scoring 2.48 goals over their last 10 games.
Robin Lehner, CHI (vs VGK) (DK: $7.4K, FD: $7.4K)
Sometimes, especially on small slates, you have to go with "what's supposed to happen usually don't. Vegas is SUPPOSED to win. Vegas is SUPPOSED to score 3.78 goals (their average over the last 10 games). However, if Vegas forgets to show up and puts 30+ shots on net but only scores 1-2 goals, it could be a good night for you with Lehner in your lineup.
#BiscuitInTheBasketWatchList 🚨
For those of you who aren’t familiar with hockey, “biscuit in the basket” is a term for scoring a goal. Here I’m going to give a center, wing, and defensemen for the top and value pricing tiers that I think has a good chance to score a goal. Remember - I gave some tips last week on numbers that I look for, and these players check most (if not all my boxes):
Sean Monahan: CGY - C (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.8K)
Monahan has a 64 CF% with 5.8 shot attempts (2.4 high danger) with 3.6 shots on net a game over their past 5 and is facing a Philly team that is giving up 3.89 goals a game over their last 10 games.
Patrick Kane: CHI - W (DK: $7.1K, FD: $8.,1K)
Patrick Kane has been a bright spot for Chicago lately with a 62 CF%, 7.2 shot attempts and 4.4 shots on net.
Kris Letang: PIT - D (DK: $6.6K, FD: $6.8K)
Obvious call on defense, but he's got 6.6 shot attempts with 3.2 shots on net and 1.4 blocks a game over the last 5 games and sits on the top powerplay unit for Pittsburgh.
Value Twigs 💲
Similar to the biscuit-in-the-basket watch list, in this section I’ll provide a center, wing, and defensemen who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.
Jonathan Toews: CHI C (DK: $5.2K, FD: $6.2K)
You've probably guessed that I'm leaning Chicago tonight. If DeSmith is the chalk, I'll definitely have Chicago exposure. I like Toews today as he's my highest-rated mid-range center on the slate. Toews is averaging 4.8 shot attempts (1.4 high danger) and 3 shots on net a game over his last 5.
Ondrej Kase: ANH - W (DK: $5.5K, FD: $4.4K)
I love playing Kase most nights, as he's averaging 6.4 shot attempts (1.8 high danger) and 3.2 shots on net over his past 5 games.
Ivan Provorov: PHI - D (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4.9K)
Mike Smith is likely in net tonight for the Flames and we know he can't keep the puck out of the net at times. Provorov is averaging 4.8 shot attempts and 2.8 shots on net over the last 5 games in over 25 minutes of ice time.
Bottom of the Barrel
I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot tonight.
Dylan Strome: CHI - C (DK: $3.8K, FD: $4.3K)
Tanner Pearson: PIT - LW (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4.5K)
Nate Schmidt: VGK - D (DK: $3.7K, FD: $3.8K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines.
Since it's a small slate, I'm going to do things a little different. I'm going to list two of the the highest-owned stacks, two of my favorite stacks, and two "biscuit" (high risk, high reward) stacks:
High-Ownership (Base on LineStar Ownership Projections):
VGK: Marchessault-Karlsson-Smith(DK: $17.1K, FD: $19.3K)
PIT: Brassard-Crosby-Guentzel (DK: $18.3K, FD: $20.1K)
Favorite stacks:
CGY: Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm (DK: $21.9K FD: $22.6K)
DAL: Benn-Seguin-Radulov (DK: $20.4K FD: $22K)
Biscuit stacks (high risk, high upside):
PHI: van Riemsdyk-Giroux-Konecny (DK: $14.7K FD: $18.5K)
ANH: Ritchie-Henrique-Kase (DK: $12.9K FD: $13.2K)
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.