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- LineStar® Hat Trick 1/21 | Risk It For The Biscuit
LineStar® Hat Trick 1/21 | Risk It For The Biscuit
Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.
Check out the NHL Season Preview & Strategy Guide
Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/0a51a22b-ed0b-4a18-88e4-9c8afd53c9f9/giphy.gif)
Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.
ICYMI - The NHL Season Preview & Strategy guide goes over the basics of NHL DFS and what I look for when building lineups.
I've said it before, but it's worth repeating - I love this condensed NHL schedule. We're getting much better slates than we've gotten before, and we're getting a lot of offense too.
It's also worth repeating some of my favorite DFS advice:
What's supposed to happen usually don't.
How can you benefit most when others are wrong?
In other words, don't be afraid to get a little wild in your lineups. Sometimes an obvious/chalky stack, plus a weird 2nd or 3rd line stack ends up being the nuts.
Again, any questions or things you'd like to see in upcoming newsletters? Hit me up in chat!
Tonight's Slate
Here's numbers on the teams so far this season. Generally, I start my research by looking for teams in good spots. For example, teams that score goals (GF60) that are facing teams that give up goals (GA60). I also look at teams that shoot a lot (CF60) that are facing teams that give up a lot of shots (CA60).
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/becfb1d2-fb75-4cd6-8786-e3a3b59a960e/slate.jpg)
Legend: CF% = Corsi For Percentage, CF60 = Corsi For Per60 min, CA = Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, HDCF60 = High Danger Corsi For Per 60 Min, HDCA60 = High Danger Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, SF60 = Shots on Goal For Per 60 Min, SA60 = Shots on Goal Allowed Per 60 Min, SOT = % of Shot Attempts On Goal, Sh% = % of Shots on Goal That Are Goals, SCF60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60 Min, SCA60 = Scoring Chances Allowed Per 60 Min, GF60 = Goals For Per 60 Min, GA60 = Goals Allowed Per 60.
Goaltender Rankings
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/c88f8b91-c7b8-4578-89ef-dd6cc356af08/g.jpg)
How to Interpret This: I've added LineStar Projected Ownership, LineStar Projected Fantasy Points, and Goalie GAA (Goals Saved Above Average), and Saves/60, along with my projected upside for each goalie. Generally, I'm looking for goalies that I think will get a win with a positive (green) GSAA and a high saves number.
As always - double-check that your goalie is starting before the game starts.
My Favorite:
Jake Allen - MON (DK: $7700, FD: $8300) *EXPECTED STARTER*
Jake Allen kind of sucks. He had a good outing against Edmonton last week, but I still don't like him. What I do like is his price and I'm not sold on Vancouver. Pettersson still doesn't look great, and I'm hoping last night was a fluke.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8ffb765b-65aa-46b5-9059-29c9375330ee/C.jpg)
How to Interpret C/D/W charts: In NHL DFS, I think it's most important to look at peripheral stats instead of goals which is why I put so much emphasis on shots. This includes shot attempts, high danger shot attempts (those shot attempts closest to the net with the highest probability of going into the net), and shots on goal. I've included projections and average fantasy points to see how each compares so you can more easily find value.
My Favorite
Anthony Cirelli - TBL (DK: $5000, FD: $5000)
I'm going to have shares of each of the 5 centers listed, but Cirelli ranks highest for me today. I wouldn't talk you off a TB2 stack, but they're not really on my radar for today. However, I love him as a one-off, or to pick up a point if you're playing player props on sportsbooks tonight.
Winger Rankings
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/de2c1ff1-0b9f-4641-b575-9eb51745b722/W.jpg)
My Favorite:
Drake Batherson - OTT (DK: $3500, FD: $3400)
I fully expect OTT1 to be a popular stack (it's already one of my top 4 stacks), which means Drizzy Bath ownership could be high tonight.
Defensemen Rankings
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/45871a1f-dc16-4212-9978-5147cdbb8600/D.jpg)
My Favorite
Victor Hedman - TBL (DK: $7100, FD: $7100)
I like Tampa as a target tonight, and where I don't have Tampa stacks, I want Hedman. Like Theodore last night, he gets a lot of ice time, takes shots, and it's a good way to get exposure to Tampa when I'm not sure what line will put the biscuit in the basket tonight.
If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.
With DFS, I try to think of these things:
Who makes the most sense to play?
Where is the field leaning?
Who has been the most consistent?
Who has the most upside?
Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?
Bottom of the Barrel
Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers", but these are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or power play unit. It could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.
Gabriel Vilardi: LAK - C (DK: $2.7K, FD: $3.4K)
Alex Galchenyuk: OTT - W (DK: $2.9K, FD: $3.6K)
Alexander Romanov: MON - D (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.3K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.
Here are my ranked stacks for tonight:
Favorite Stacks Tonight:
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/82bb74ae-790c-49b8-8999-2f3a673cffd0/fave.jpg)
Top-Projected Owned Stacks:
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ed299dfe-ca60-470f-887c-0f9f79726bcb/own.jpg)
Again - this isn't an invitation to fade any of these lines. If you're playing GPP, you could pretty comfortably stack one of these top-owned stacks with a biscuit stack and get a fairly unique lineup.
Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stacks:
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/8cd0b877-24d6-4678-bd4d-f28f2ed62095/biscuit.jpg)
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.
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