- LineStar Hat Trick
- Posts
- LineStar® Hat Trick 1/20 | LineStar Optimizer Models
LineStar® Hat Trick 1/20 | LineStar Optimizer Models
Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.
Check out the NHL Season Preview & Strategy Guide
Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/fbcdd75a-47f9-4b48-b9d2-b306a146319c/giphy__285_29.gif)
Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.
ICYMI - The NHL Season Preview & Strategy guide goes over the basics of NHL DFS and what I look for when building lineups.
Today, I want to talk about using the LineStar optimizer. Whether you play a couple of lineups or 150+, I have some tips that might help.
For starters, I like to utilize each of the LineGen models listed.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/9918db51-6343-44cc-9dca-c4a9776bcf43/models.png)
I often see people ask in chat "which model is best?" and, at least to me, I don't think that one is necessarily better than the other. Each model will build lineups with a specific algorithm. The only ones I generally skip for NHL are "Double Ups" and "Random". YMMV. As I research the slate, I like to build 5-10 lineups (sometimes more) of each model, merge all lineups, and take a look at what I'm getting back.
NOTE: Keep in mind this is just an example. My exposures will change between now and lock.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/cbbd18d4-920f-40a8-ba28-c000babf8f8f/players.png)
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/780f6e55-3a99-4d17-97fe-5de8717a8ee3/teams.png)
I also find it beneficial to look at individual lineups as well, asking myself "would I build this lineup by hand?" If I'm getting players I don't like, I either lower their projection or click the "Hate" button on that player to exclude them from my lineups.
Another scenario to think of is if I'm getting back teams or players that I don't want. Let's say that I have zero interest in Anaheim. One solution would be to simply delete those lineups manually. If I want to exclude all Anaheim players altogether, I can click on the Games tab on the LINEGEN setup and then click on Anaheim to exclude all players from my lineups.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/2527f097-7d02-4dea-8c36-2b96626c060b/20210120_202223501_iOS.png)
The other point I'll make is that I like a very diverse portfolio of lineups. I like to go heavier on my favorites, but I'll still get light exposures to the "so you're telling me there's a chance" teams and stacks just in case. My strategy leans towards having one lineup place first as opposed to trying to get a number of teams across the cash line.
So let's look at the other side of that, let's say I love TOR1. I'm going to go all in on them. In that case, I'll start a new builder, manually add (or use the Stack Finder tool to add) those players to the builder. From there, I can select the model I want to use and it will lock those players I selected and build around them based on the algorithm of the model selected. In my experience, it's been easier and more effective for me to build a number of lineups when I want specific stacks than trying to mess with exposures in the app. Once you have each set built, you can always merge and export lineups as a single lineup set.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/00c1336d-f0b9-4950-8b5c-7f8db3b91070/IMG_5769.jpg)
I know that's a lot and I hope this all makes sense. Hit me up in chat if you have additional thoughts or questions.
Tonight's Slate
Here's numbers on the teams so far this season. Generally, I start my research by looking for teams in good spots. For example, teams that score goals (GF60) that are facing teams that give up goals (GA60). I also look at teams that shoot a lot (CF60) that are facing teams that give up a lot of shots (CA60).
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/154375f0-7792-4dba-a0f0-7f111fbdcc76/slate.png)
Legend: CF% = Corsi For Percentage, CF60 = Corsi For Per60 min, CA = Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, HDCF60 = High Danger Corsi For Per 60 Min, HDCA60 = High Danger Corsi Allowed Per 60 Min, SF60 = Shots on Goal For Per 60 Min, SA60 = Shots on Goal Allowed Per 60 Min, SOT = % of Shot Attempts On Goal, Sh% = % of Shots on Goal That Are Goals, SCF60 = Scoring Chances For Per 60 Min, SCA60 = Scoring Chances Allowed Per 60 Min, GF60 = Goals For Per 60 Min, GA60 = Goals Allowed Per 60.
Goaltender Rankings
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ea546060-b231-4fd4-acd1-9f54904ee703/G.png)
How to Interpret This: I've added LineStar Projected Ownership, LineStar Projected Fantasy Points, and Goalie GAA (Goals Saved Above Average), and Saves/60, along with my projected upside for each goalie. Generally, I'm looking for goalies that I think will get a win with a positive (green) GSAA and a high saves number.
As always - double-check that your goalie is starting before the game starts.
My Favorite:
Carey Price - MON (DK: $8000, FD: $8200) *EXPECTED STARTER*
I've mentioned this before, but I haven't been impressed by Vancouver so far this year. They're only averaging 2.25 goals a game, and Montreal has played well to start the season. I think Montreal picks up the win here and I have Price in the majority of my lineups so far.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/10fdc4d1-c637-4ac1-b8e1-3ebf2e51427c/C.png)
How to Interpret C/D/W charts: In NHL DFS, I think it's most important to look at peripheral stats instead of goals which is why I put so much emphasis on shots. This includes shot attempts, high danger shot attempts (those shot attempts closest to the net with the highest probability of going into the net), and shots on goal. I've included projections and average fantasy points to see how each compares so you can more easily find value.
My Favorite
Tomas Hertl - SJS (DK: $6200, FD: $6000)
I'll admit, I'm not sure where I'm going to go between Tavares, Matthews, and McDavid for tonight. Honestly, at this point, I've got an even spread of lineups with each. However, I have Hertl with the majority of them. The Sharks continue to tempt me as (SPOILER) they're one of my favorite biscuit stacks for tonight.
Winger Rankings
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/3e953fb3-c170-49cc-9103-dac29051420b/W.png)
My Favorite:
Brendan Gallagher - MON (DK: $5600, FD: $7100)
Montreal is one of my favorite stacks tonight and I'm going to have a lot of Brendan Gallagher shares. He shoots the puck a lot and is facing a Vancouver team that is allowing 4 goals a game.
Defensemen Rankings
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/67f7df21-0c26-4472-a231-66a2b9dfa11a/D.png)
My Favorite
Shea Theodore - VGK (DK: $6500, FD: $6100)
I've mentioned this before, but I always struggle with Vegas because I never know which line I want to target, but I have found it "safer" to roster their defensemen in my lineups. Theodore is my favorite as he shoots the puck a lot and is always a candidate for picking up the coveted 5-shot bonus on DraftKings.
If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.
With DFS, I try to think of these things:
Who makes the most sense to play?
Where is the field leaning?
Who has been the most consistent?
Who has the most upside?
Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?
Bottom of the Barrel
Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers", but these are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or power play unit. It could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.
Brayden Schenn: STL - C (DK: $4.1K, FD: $5.3K)
Ryan Donato: SJS - W (DK: $3.1K, FD: $3.4K)
Justin Faulk: STL - D (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.9K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.
Here are my ranked stacks for tonight:
Favorite Stacks Tonight:
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/abd046e9-35ce-4e5e-b074-42e8fc5706ee/fave.png)
Top-Projected Owned Stacks:
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/1902d8fa-fb52-48ee-8b45-7d47c775c605/own.png)
Again - this isn't an invitation to fade any of these lines. If you're playing GPP, you could pretty comfortably stack one of these top-owned stacks with a biscuit stack and get a fairly unique lineup.
Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stacks:
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/ab511b99-6f76-467b-a809-26a97ef00bb6/biscuit.png)
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.
🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨
Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!
Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.