LineStar® Hat Trick 1/17 | Thursday Thoughts

Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.

Sorry for getting this out a little later than usual. Had computer problems this morning and had to do some reinstalls and restores to get my data back. We get a pretty good slate for tonight at 7-games and with some top teams and players on the slate. Like before, here are my 10 top-ranked skaters on the night. It's from my own sauce, but generally a mix of recent performance and matchup. You shouldn't need much convincing to play anyone in this list, so instead we'll focus on skaters outside of that.

Here's a look at team numbers over the last 10 games from a high level:

If you're new, let's do a quick rundown of what each of the columns represents (remember these are numbers over the past 10 games):

W = wins, L = losses (excluding OT losses), CF% = Corsi (shot attempts) For %, CF60 = Corsi for per 60 minutes, CA60 = Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, HDCF60 = High danger Corsi for per 60 minutes, HDCA60 = High danger Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, SF60 = shots for on net per 60 minutes, SA60 = shots on net allowed per 60 minutes, SV% = save percentage, SOT = shots on target (percentage of shots taken that hit the goal or go in), Sh% = shooting percentage (% of shots that become goals), SCF60 = scoring chances for per 60 minutes, SCA60 = scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes, PDO = Called SPSV% by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage, GF60 = goals for per 60 minutes, GA60 = goals allowed per 60 minutes, Avg = Projected goals (my projections) for the team, xTotal = projected over/under

Of course, if you have any additional thoughts or questions, be sure to hit me up in chat.

Slate News

Fortunately, only a couple of goalies have not been confirmed at this time, so keep an eye on the updates page for player confirmations and changes.

✅ Mackenzie Blackwood vs 🅿️ Robin Lehner

✅ Collin Delia vs ✅ Henrik Lundqvist

✅ Jake Allen vs ✅ Tuukka Rask

✅ Frederik Andersen vs ✅ Andrei Vasilevskiy

✅ Connor Hellebuyck vs 🅿️ Pekka Rinne

✅ John Gibson vs ✅ Alex Stalock

✅ Jack Campbell vs ✅ Ben Bishop

Now, lets look at my favorites on the slate:

Goaltending

This is your starting point when playing cash games. You want a goalie that has a solid chance to get a win, but will also face a decent number of shots. North of 30 shots on net is ideal. Here are my three favorites that check those boxes tonight:

Robin Lehner (vs NJ) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $8.5K)

Lehner has been so good lately that I don't mind rolling him out again against New Jersey. Lehner has a 1.40 GAA and .951 Save% over the past month.

Collin Delia, CHI (@NYR) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.9K)

Delia has been standing on his head for Chicago. He has a 2.50 GAA and .932 Save% over the past month and has been averaging 32.4 saves over his last 5 starts. There's a lot of upside for him, which is why I don't mind rolling him out tonight.

Alex Stalock, MIN (vs ANH ) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.3K)

Anaheim has been so bad lately, losing their last 12 games in a row. Silfverberg and Kesler are hurt. Cogliano got traded away for magic beans. The Ducks are a mess. I don't normally like to play backup goalies, but I like Minnesota at home tonight and the price is right on Stalock.

#BiscuitInTheBasketWatchList 🚨

For those of you who aren’t familiar with hockey, “biscuit in the basket” is a term for scoring a goal. Here I’m going to give a center, wing, and defensemen for the top and value pricing tiers that I think has a good chance to score a goal. Remember - I gave some tips last week on numbers that I look for, and these players check most (if not all my boxes):

Auston Matthews: TOR - C (DK: $7.8K, FD: $8.6K)

It's weird that I need to make an argument for one of the best players in the world, but here we are. Despite his recent numbers, he has huge upside. He's seeing 4.2 scoring chances a night and averaging 5.4 shot attempts (1.4 high danger) and 2.6 shots on net a night over his last 5 games.

Blake Wheeler: WPG - W (DK: $7.4K, FD: $8.2K)

I love Wheeler because he's been getting a ton of ice time, plays on the top line and top powerplay unit, and has been averaging 6 shot attempts (1.2 high danger) and 4 shots on net over the last 5 games.

Roman Josi: NSH - D (DK: $6.2K, FD: $6.5K)

I like Josi almost every night, even when he's not in the newsletter. He gets over 23 minutes a night. Gets top powerplay unit time, shoots the puck 3+ times a night and is good for blocking a shot or two.

Value Twigs 💲

Similar to the biscuit-in-the-basket watch list, in this section I’ll provide a center, wing, and defensemen who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Jeff Carter: LA - C (DK: $4.4K, FD: $5.2K)

Not in a great spot, but the price is cheap enough for someone of his talent. Carter gets time on the top powerplay unit for LA and is averaging 4.6 shot attempts (1.2 high danger) and 2.6 shots on net a game over his last 5 games.

Ondrej Palat: TB - W (DK: $4.6K, FD: $5.2K)

Still great value playing on the top line and top powerplay unit for Tampa. Averaging 4.2 shot attempts with 3.2 shots on net over his last 5 games.

Mattias Ekholm: NSH - D (DK: $5.3K, FD: $5.7K)

Checks a lot of boxes for me. Plays almost 24 minutes a game. Gets powerplay unit time and is averaging 5 shot attempts, 2 shots on net, and 2.2 blocks a game over his past 5 games.

Bottom of the Barrel

I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot tonight.

Nick Bonino: NSH - C (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4.5K)

Peter Cehlarik: BOS- W (DK: $2.5K, FD: NA) *Not available on FanDuel

Mathieu Perreault: WPG - W (DK: $2.9K, FD: $3.4K)

Matt Grzelcyk: BOS - D (DK: $3.1K, FD: $3.9K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines.

I'm going to list two of the the highest-projected owned stacks, two of my favorite stacks, and two "biscuit" (high risk, high reward) stacks:

High-Ownership (Based on LineStar Ownership Projections):

TB: Johnson-Point-Kucherov (DK: $21.2K, FD: $22.7K)

WPG: Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler (DK: $20.7K, FD: $21.9K)

Favorite stacks:

NSH: Forsberg-Johansen-Arvidsson (DK: $18.7K FD: $20.9K)

NYR: Kreider-Zibanejad-Zuccarello (DK: $17.1K FD: $18.7K)

Biscuit stacks (high risk, high upside):

CHI: Anisimov-Strome-Kane (DK: $16.4K, FD: $17.9K)

NYI: Lee-Nelson-Eberle (DK: $17.1K FD: $17.5K)

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.