Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Check out the NHL Season Preview & Strategy Guide

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

So let's talk about the chalk for tonight (and almost every night for that matter), the Toronto Maple Leafs. I've put together this chart that looks at numbers over the past 10 games as well as fantasy points over the last 5 games and over the last month. I generally look at this for each team so that I can step back and see how lines compare. Specifically, I'm looking at what I get out of each for the price and recent production.

The Matthews line definitely stands out, but it's also going to be the highest owned too. However, if you've played NHL DFS (or just DFS in general), you've seen that what's supposed to happen usually doesn't. So in this case, it's probably worth considering pivoting to the Tavares line (also good) or dropping down to the extra cheap 3rd line that isn't that far off the other two lines when you consider their shot volume and scoring chances.

Let me know if you find this helpful. I'm happy to make this more of a regular thing for the chalkiest team on the slate if you're interested in finding worthy pivots. Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight:

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

• SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Anders Nilsson - OTT (DK: $7700, FD: $7300)

Make no mistake, Nilsson is not a great goalie. He's pretty much been a lifetime backup, but he's put up some good numbers this season. Also, he's facing a Kings team that is not good. I think he has some good upside as well, as the Kings have been putting the puck on net 35.8 times a game over their last 10 games. If you're playing on DraftKings, this is important because of the 35 save bonus.

Centers

William Karlsson -VGK (DK: $6600, FD: $6600)

For as dangerous as Toronto's offense is, they're also giving up 3.1 goals a game over their last 10 games, which is why I want a lot of Vegas tonight. I've been heavy on the Vegas second line the last couple of weeks, but the top line has started to produce like they have in the past. Also, Toronto gives up a lot of fantasy points to the opposing top line, which is why I'll have a lot of exposure to Karlsson and his line mates.

Wingers

Brady Tkachuk - OTT (DK: $5800, FD: $5300)

It's becoming almost automatic for me to target the Kings every time they play. They've allowed 4.2 goals a game over their last 5, so I'm going to have a lot of Ottawa tonight. For me, it starts with Tkachuk, who has been averaging 3.6 shots a game and 2.8 high danger shot attempts a game as well.

Defensemen

Jakob Chychrun - ARI (DK: $3900, FD: $3700)

Chychrun is almost always too cheap for someone who plays almost 23 minutes a game, shoots the puck almost half a dozen times a game (3 shots on net on average over his last 5), and gets power play minutes.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Brandon Sutter: VAN - C (DK: $4K, FD: $4.4K)

Tyler Ennis: OTT - W (DK: $3K, FD: $3.2K)

Ben Chiarot: MON - D (DK: $3.1K, FD: $3.7K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my favorites, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks. Along with these stacks you can compare their prices, see how LineStar projects them, as well as their combined average fantasy points per game over the last 5 games.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.