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LineStar® Hat Trick 1/16 | Line Stackin'
Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.
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Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.
I'm pretty excited because we've been attracting some new people into the NHL chat. Some of you I know from other sports, and want to thank you for giving NHL a try.
Today, I want to go a little more into depth in regards to line stacking. Line stacking is a popular strategy in tournaments. Reasons for stacking is a lot like the reasons you stack in MLB, it's all about correlation. Basically, when a goal is scored, you have a potential for 7.5 total points (on DraftKings - 29.6 points on FanDuel) added to your lineup as a goal, up to two assists, and a shot on goal are awarded. You'll find that stacking is the strategy most of the pros use, and it's definitely recommended when running multiple lineups.
For the most part, you'll find that most pros use 3-3, 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks. What this means is that they're stacking 3 players from one team with 3 players from another team, along with 2 uncorrelated and unrelated defensemen. Here's an example of a 3-3 stack:
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In a 4-3 stack, 4 players from one team and 3 players from another team are played in a lineup. Here's an example of a 4-3 stack:
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Finally, in a 3-3-2 stack, 3 players from one team are played with 3 players from another team and another 2 players from another team. I don't run this stack very often.
Personally, I prefer to keep forwards in my stacks if I'm doing 3 players. If I'm doing a stack of 4, that's when I'll add a D. In that case, I usually like it to be someone that will correlate somehow with a forward, such as sharing time on a powerplay unit.
Also, you'll notice that I don't often correlate a goalie with a team that I'm stacking. If I do, it's not intentional.
Keep in mind, there's no magic bullet with stacking. What works one night doesn't necessarily work the next. There will be times too, where your stack only factors in to one goal, and maybe not everyone in your stack gets a goal or assist. Make no mistake, stacks are risky, but they have significant upside.
So let's dive into tonight's slate. It's not a huge one at 5 games, but a pretty good slate for a Wednesday. Like before, here are my 10 top-ranked skaters on the night. It's from my own sauce, but generally a mix of recent performance and matchup. You shouldn't need much convincing to play anyone in this list, so instead we'll focus on skaters outside of that.
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Here's a look at team numbers over the last 10 games from a high level:
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If you're new, let's do a quick rundown of what each of the columns represents (remember these are numbers over the past 10 games):
W = wins, L = losses (excluding OT losses), CF% = Corsi (shot attempts) For %, CF60 = Corsi for per 60 minutes, CA60 = Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, HDCF60 = High danger Corsi for per 60 minutes, HDCA60 = High danger Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, SF60 = shots for on net per 60 minutes, SA60 = shots on net allowed per 60 minutes, SV% = save percentage, SOT = shots on target (percentage of shots taken that hit the goal or go in), Sh% = shooting percentage (% of shots that become goals), SCF60 = scoring chances for per 60 minutes, SCA60 = scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes, PDO = Called SPSV% by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage, GF60 = goals for per 60 minutes, GA60 = goals allowed per 60 minutes, Avg = Projected goals (my projections) for the team, xTotal = projected over/under
Of course, if you have any additional thoughts or questions, be sure to hit me up in chat.
Slate News
Unfortunately, only a handful of goalies have been confirmed at this time, so keep an eye on the updates page for player confirmations and changes.
🅿️ Semyon Varlamov vs ✅ Anders Nilsson
✅ Jaroslav Halak vs ✅ Carter Hart
🅿️ Carter Hutton vs 🅿️ David Rittich
🅿️ Mikko Koskinen vs 🅿️ Jacob Markstrom
🅿️ Aaron Dell vs 🅿️ Darcy Kuemper
Now, lets look at my favorites on the slate:
Goaltending
This is your starting point when playing cash games. You want a goalie that has a solid chance to get a win, but will also face a decent number of shots. North of 30 shots on net is ideal. Here are my three favorites that check those boxes tonight:
Jaroslav Halak (vs PHI) (DK: $8.3K, FD: $7.8K)
Really getting tired of playing Halak, as he's been dropping a few duds lately. He's been ok over the past month with a 2.33 GAA and a .916 Save% over the past month. He's favored tonight and Boston should win this game as Philly has been pretty miserable at times lately.
Darcy Kuemper, ARI (vs SJ) (DK: $7.2K, FD: $7.5K)
Completely going against the grain on this one. Kuemper has been ok over the past month with a 2.44 GAA and a .921 Save%. He has a really tough matchup tonight against San Jose, who shut down a really good Pittsburgh team last night. It's a really risky, tourmanent-only play against a SJ team that has won 9 out of their last 10 games. If anything, you'll have low ownership on your side.
David Rittich, CGY (vs BUF ) (DK: $8.1K, FD: $8.9K)
By numbers alone, BIG SAVE DAVE hasn't looked that great. Over the last month he has a 2.89 GAA and .911 Save%. Nothing to get excited about. However, Calgary has been playing well and winning. Calgary is heavily favored tonight, which means he'll probably be high-owned and is a solid option for cash games.
#BiscuitInTheBasketWatchList 🚨
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For those of you who aren’t familiar with hockey, “biscuit in the basket” is a term for scoring a goal. Here I’m going to give a center, wing, and defensemen for the top and value pricing tiers that I think has a good chance to score a goal. Remember - I gave some tips last week on numbers that I look for, and these players check most (if not all my boxes):
Tomas Hertl: SJ - C (DK: $5.6K, FD: $6.3K)
Hertl had a hat-trick last night and is playing really well over his last 5 games. My only knock about him is he doesn't take a lot of shots. He's averaging 3.6 shot attempts (1.4 high danger) with 2.2 shots on net over his last 5 games. The upside is he plays close to the net, which accounts for a high-percentage of his shot attempts being high-danger. He also gets time on the top powerplay unit for San Jose and gets a good matchup against an Arizona team that is giving up 3.03 goals a game over their last 10 games.
Mikko Rantanen: COL - W (DK: $7.4K, FD: $7.7K)
Rantanen has a nice 69 CF% with 6.2 shot attempts (1.4 high danger) and 3.2 shots on net over his last 5 games and gets a great matchup against an Ottawa team that is giving up 3.78 goals a game over their last 5 games.
Torey Krug: BOS - D (DK: $5.6K, FD: $6.2K)
Again, my favorite D tonight that isn't Burns or Karlsson. Krug has an outstanding 65 CF% along with 4.6 shot attempts
Value Twigs 💲
Similar to the biscuit-in-the-basket watch list, in this section I’ll provide a center, wing, and defensemen who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.
Carl Soderberg: COL - C (DK: $4.8K, FD: $4.6K)
Soderberg is my favorite value center today. He's had a great season so far and is averaging 5.4 shot attempts with 3 shots on net a night over his last 5 games.
James van Riemsdyk: PHI - W (DK: $4.5K, FD: $6.1K)
JVR rates high for me today, even though his numbers don't fall in line with what I usually look for (3.2 shot attempts, 1.2 high danger shot attempts, 2.2 shots on net), but he's been averaging a goal a game over his last 5 games.
Tyson Barrie: COL - D (DK: $5.2K, FD: $5.8K)
Barrie has an insane 70 CF% over the past 5 games with 7 shot attempts with 3.6 shots on net a game in over 24 minutes a game and plays on the top powerplay unit for Colorado.
Bottom of the Barrel
I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot tonight.
Josh Leivo: VAN - C (DK: $2.6K, FD: $3.4K)
Connor Garland: ARI - W (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.9K)
Radko Gudas: PHI - D (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines.
I'm going to list two of the the highest-projected owned stacks, two of my favorite stacks, and two "biscuit" (high risk, high reward) stacks:
High-Ownership (Based on LineStar Ownership Projections):
COL: Landeskog-Mackinnon-Rantanen (DK: $22.7K, FD: $23.7K)
CGY: Kane-Hertl-Donskoi (DK: $15.9K, FD: $17.5K)
Favorite stacks:
BOS: Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak (DK: $21.9K FD: $24.9K)
EDM: Draisaitl-McDavid-Chiasson (DK: $18.5K FD: $20.2K)
Biscuit stacks (high risk, high upside):
BUF: Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart (DK: $18.5K, FD: $20.8K)
CGY: Tkachuk-Backlund-Frolik (DK: $14.6K FD: $17K)
Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.