LineStar® Hat Trick 1/15 | One Game Sample Size

Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

This may feel like déjà vu, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the league is limiting travel and this season will consist entirely of divisional games. The NHL schedule this year will look a lot like the MLB schedule in that teams will face off in two to four-game sets.

I've been thinking about the best way to approach this. I was reminded of how I approached the MLB season, and came up with this: If I liked a team/stack/player in their last game, why wouldn't I like them tonight?

To me, that means that even if TOR1 or COL1 disappointed the other night, I'm going right back to the well tonight.

Something else to think about is that it wouldn't surprise me if we see an upwards trend in penalties called. When teams play each other a lot, animosity can build. For that reason, I'm going to really look to target players on the power play units.

LETSSSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

Tonight's Slate

Right. One game sample size. Still, here are my takeaways from teams' first games:

Toronto shoots A LOT.

Don't sleep on Pittsburgh. They shoot the puck a lot as well.

WAS and BUF were pretty even in terms of shots and scoring chances. This should be another good game and I don't mind a full game stack.

Colorado did not look great on paper, but as an early Stanley Cup final favorite, they'll turn it around at some point.

Goaltender Rankings

My Favorite:

Jordan Binnington - STL (DK: $7600, FD: $7500) *EXPECTED STARTER*

I'll admit, I'm chasing a bit here, and picking the goaltender against Colorado wasn't a great move most of last year, but as opening night showed us, you can get more upside out of a mid-salary goalie than a top-salary goalie sometimes. Maybe this is dumb and you can all laugh at me tonight, but I just don't feel like spending up tonight.

My Favorite

Auston Matthews - TOR (DK: $8100, FD: $8400)

Remember when McDavid was a dud the first night out and the second night he led the league in scoring? That's my motive for chasing Auston Matthews tonight. He was throwing the puck at the net all night in the first game of the season and if that continues, I think he has a good chance of getting a few in the back of the net.

Winger Rankings

My Favorite:

William Nylander - TOR (DK: $5900, FD: $6700)

This feels kind of wrong, but Toronto is one of those teams that always feels like if I stack one of the top two lines, the other goes off. To me, it seems the solution should be to team stack Toronto and get exposure to both top lines more than trying to full line stack.

Defensemen Rankings

My Favorite

Rasmus Dahlin - BUF (DK: $4100, FD: $4800)

Dahlin seems a little underpriced to me, especially on DraftKings, and I think if you're stacking BUF1 or BUF PP1, I think you're going to want to squeeze him into your lineup, but I love him as a one-off to get exposure to that game.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers", but these are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or power play unit. It could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Anthony Cirelli: TBL - C (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.9K)

Joel Farabee: PHI - W (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.2K)

Samuel Girard: COL - D (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4.7K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Here are my ranked stacks for tonight:

Favorite Stacks Tonight:

Top-Projected Owned Stacks:

Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stacks:

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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