LineStar® Hat Trick 1/14 | 6-Game Monday Main Slate

Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.

Six-game slate tonight, and a fairly decent one. I expect there to be some solid looks Edmonton, Toronto, and Colorado, but I think Boston and Minnesota are worth looking at as well.

Like last week, we'll start with my personal top ten ranked skaters on the slate. This is my own sauce, but based on recent performance and matchup, but my purpose in sharing this is to point out some of the obvious plays on the night so that I can bring you all some other good plays to put in your lineups.

Here's a look at team numbers over the last 10 games from a high level:

If you're new, let's do a quick rundown of what each of the columns represents (remember these are numbers over the past 10 games):

W = wins, L = losses (excluding OT losses), CF% = Corsi (shot attempts) For %, CF60 = Corsi for per 60 minutes, CA60 = Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, HDCF60 = High danger Corsi for per 60 minutes, HDCA60 = High danger Corsi allowed per 60 minutes, SF60 = shots for on net per 60 minutes, SA60 = shots on net allowed per 60 minutes, SV% = save percentage, SOT = shots on target (percentage of shots taken that hit the goal or go in), Sh% = shooting percentage (% of shots that become goals), SCF60 = scoring chances for per 60 minutes, SCA60 = scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes, PDO = Called SPSV% by the NHL, is the sum of a team's shooting percentage and its save percentage, GF60 = goals for per 60 minutes, GA60 = goals allowed per 60 minutes, Avg = Projected goals (my projections) for the team, xTotal = projected over/under

Of course, if you have any additional thoughts or questions, be sure to hit me up in chat.

Slate News

The good news is most goalies are confirmed at this time, but keep an eye on the updates page for player confirmations and changes.

✅ Jake Allen vs ✅ Phoenix Copley

✅ Devan Dubnyk vs ✅ Carter Hart

✅ Cam Ward vs ✅ Mackenzie Blackwood

🅿️ Semyon Varlamov vs ✅ Frederik Andersen

✅ Carey Price vs ✅ Tuukka Rask

✅ Carter Hutton vs ✅ Mikko Koskinen

Now, lets look at my favorites on the slate:

Goaltending

This is your starting point when playing cash games. You want a goalie that has a solid chance to get a win, but will also face a decent number of shots. North of 30 shots on net is ideal. Here are my three favorites that check those boxes tonight:

Tuuka Rask (vs MON) (DK: $8K, FD: $9.1K)

Rask is that goalie that I never seem to get right, but he's been so good lately. He's favored tonight and faces a Montreal team that has the third best Corsi For on the slate, so there's definite upside for Rask if he can keep Montreal from scoring. If I'm playing cash games, I'm probably going to go with Rask, but I think there are some other options I'd consider in tournaments.

Phoenix Copley , WAS (vs STL) (DK: $8K, FD: $7.8K)

Like most goalies on tonight's slate, I like Copley, but there's definitely some risk. St. Louis is playing better, but Copley has played well himself with a 1.83 GAA and a .938 Save% over the past month.

Mackenzie Blackwood, NJ (vs CHI ) (DK: $7.9K, FD: $7.4K)

Not even looking at numbers, I like Blackwood as Cam Ward is starting for Chicago. If you're not familiar with Cam Ward, it's almost like starting Bartolo Colon in MLB. He might limit damage, but he's not good. I'm definitely chasing the win bonus with this one.

#BiscuitInTheBasketWatchList 🚨

For those of you who aren’t familiar with hockey, “biscuit in the basket” is a term for scoring a goal. Here I’m going to give a center, wing, and defensemen for the top and value pricing tiers that I think has a good chance to score a goal. Remember - I gave some tips last week on numbers that I look for, and these players check most (if not all my boxes):

Nico Hischier: NJ - C (DK: $5.8K, FD: $5.8K)

I mentioned this before: Cam Ward. Hischier comes in at a good price and has been averaging 4.2 shot attempts (1.6 high danger) and 2.4 shots on net over his last 5 games.

Vladimir Tarasenko: STL - W (DK: $5.6K, FD: $7.2K)

Tarasenko is averaging 6.2 shot attempts (1.4 high danger) and 3.6 shots on net a night over his last 5 games and plays on the top line and top powerplay unit for St. Louis.

Darnell Nurse: EDM - D (DK: $5.4K, FD: $5.3K)

Nurse plays on the top defensive pairing and top powerplay unit for Edmonton and has been averaging over 26 minutes a game with 7.4 shot attempts and 3.8 shots on net with 1.2 blocks a game over his last 5 games.

Value Twigs 💲

Similar to the biscuit-in-the-basket watch list, in this section I’ll provide a center, wing, and defensemen who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Nazem Kadri: TOR - C (DK: $4.4K, FD: $5.1K)

Kadri is averaging 6.4 shot attempts (2.2 high danger) with 2.8 shots on net over his last 5 games and gets time on the top powerplay unit for Toronto.

Brendan Gallagher: MON- W (DK: $5.1K, FD: $6K)

Gallagher is averaging 6.6 shot attempts and 4 shots on net over his last 5 games. Tough matchup against Boston, but should go under 5% owned tonight.

Erik Johnson: COL - D (DK: $4.1K, FD: $4.4K)

On the top defensive pairing for Colorado. Gets 23 minutes a game and averages 6 shot attempts with 2.6 shots on net with 1.8 blocks a game over his last 5 games.

Bottom of the Barrel

I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot tonight.

Pavel Zacha: NJ - C (DK: $3.4K, FD: $3.6K)

Sean Kuraly: BOS - W (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.5K)

Kris Russell: EDM - D (DK: $3.7K, FD: $3.7K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines.

I'm going to list two of the the highest-projected owned stacks, two of my favorite stacks, and two "biscuit" (high risk, high reward) stacks:

High-Ownership (Based on LineStar Ownership Projections):

COL: Landeskog-Mackinnon-Rantanen (DK: $22.2K, FD: $23.5K)

TOR: Hyman-Tavares-Marner (DK: $18.5K, FD: $20.8K)

Favorite stacks:

BOS: Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak (DK: $22.1K FD: $25K)

BUF: Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart (DK: $19.1K FD: $21K)

Biscuit stacks (high risk, high upside):

STL: Schwartz-Schenn-Tarasenko (DK: $14.7K FD: $17.8K)

CHI: DeBrincat-Toews-Kahun (DK: $14.1K FD: $17.5K)

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.