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- LineStar® Hat Trick 11-30 | Three-Headed Monsters
LineStar® Hat Trick 11-30 | Three-Headed Monsters
Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver. Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.
Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick.
We've got a great 5-game slate tonight. Colorado is the obvious play tonight and for good reason, followed closely by Calgary, Buffalo, and probably Washington and New Jersey. Probably the first question to ask yourself is do I need to play the three-headed monster of Landeskog, Rantenen, and MacKinnon. I'm absolutely playing them and will have heavy exposure to the top line and second line for Colorado. I understand anyone that wants to fade them. It's sports and anything can happen. The top line could score one goal and that's it. One goal from that line isn't going to win a GPP, but if that line scores 3 goals and you don't have them, you're going to have to make up elsewhere, which can be really tough in hockey. What I like to do is look other ways to differentiate my lineups. Remember Craig Anderson last night? He pitched a shutout and no one was on him. A low-owned goalie shutout is a huge advantage. You could also go with riskier stacks, such as NJ2 or ANH2. That's what I'll be doing and here's a look at the slate from a high-level.
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Heads up - at the time of this writing, most goalies have been confirmed. Keep an eye on chat for updates throughout the day.
🅿️Carter Hutton vs ✅ James Reimer
✅Keith Kinkaid vs 🅿️ Braden Holtby
✅ John Gibson vs ✅ Curtis McElhinney
✅ Jake Allen vs ✅ Semyon Varlamov
🅿️ Jonathan Quick ✅ Mike Smith
Let's look at my favorites on the slate:
Goaltending
Playing cash games? Fill in your goalie spot first. Playing tournaments? Fill your skater positions and pick the goaltender with the biggest upside for the least amount of salary. Here are my three favorite goaltenders on the night:
Braden Holtby, WAS (vs NJ) (DK: $7.9K, FD: $8.6K)
Holtby has been outstanding this week, and solid over the past month. He's my favorite goaltender on the slate tonight. Not yet confirmed, but projected to start.
Curtis McElhinney, CAR (vs ANH) (DK: $7.7K, FD: $7.5K)
I expect McElhinney to be high owned tonight, mostly based off of his price and matchup. Anaheim is averaging 1.96 goals per game over their past 10 and McElhinney has a 1.60 goals against average and .953 save percentage over the past month.
Semyon Varlamov, COL (vs STL) (DK: $8.4K, FD: $8.8K)
Homer pick. I'll be at the game tonight and Colorado is heavily favored. This usually doesn't end well but I'm going to go with it.
#BiscuitInTheBasketWatchList 🚨
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For those of you who aren’t familiar with hockey, “biscuit in the basket” is a term for scoring a goal. Here I’m going to give a center, wing, and defensemen for the top and value pricing tiers that I think has a good chance to score a goal. Remember - I gave some tips last week on numbers that I look for, and these players check most (if not all my boxes):
Jack Eichel: BUF - C (DK: $7.3K, FD: $7.4K)
MacKinnon is the easy choice for tonight, but I like Eichel as he has similar upside and is $1000 cheaper. Over the last 5 games, Eichel has a 56 CF% with 5.4 shot attempts and 3.8 shots on net.
Alex Ovechkin: WAS- LW (DK: $7.9K, FD: $8.8K)
Ovechkin gets a good matchup tonight against a Devils team that is allowing 3.25 goals per game. SPOILER: I don't have the Washington top line as one of my stacks, but I wouldn't talk you out of it tonight.
Mike Hoffman: FLA- RW (DK: $6.7K, FD: $6.6K)
Hoffman is averaging 6.8 shot attempts with 4.6 shots on net on a 62 CF% over his last 5 games.
Mark Giordano: CGY - D (DK: $6.3K, FD: $5.9K)
Favorite D if you're spending up tonight. 56 CF% with 2.4 shots and 1 block and an assist per game over his last 5 games.
Value Twigs 💲
Similar to the biscuit-in-the-basket watch list, in this section I’ll provide a center, wing, and defensemen who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.
Jeff Carter: LA - C (DK: $4.2K, FD: $5.6K)
I started looking at Kings a lot today because Mike Smith is starting in net for Calgary. Carter is cheap and has solid numbers over the last 5 games - 59 CF%, 6.4 shot attempts, and 2.6 shots on net.
Jonathan Huberdeau: FLA- LW (DK: $5.6K, FD: $6.2K)
The problem with Huberdeau is he doesn't shoot the puck much. However, he is averaging almost 2 assists per game and plays on the top powerplay unit for Florida.
Dustin Brown: LA - RW (DK: $5.4K, FD: $6.1K)
As I mentioned, I like the Kings a lot versus Mike Smith and the Flames. Brown is averaging 6.2 shots on net with 3.6 shots on net over his past 5 games.
Justin Faulk: CAR - D (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.5K)
Best value defenseman on the slate. In over 23 minutes a night he's averaging 6.4 shot attempts, 3.2 shots on net, and 2 blocks a game over his last 5 games.
Bottom of the Barrel
I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot tonight.
Lucas Wallmark: CAR - C (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.2K)
Tage Thompson: BUF- LW (DK: $2.6K, FD: $3.5K)
Sam Bennett: CGY - RW (DK: $3.4K, FD: $3.6K)
Noah Hanifin: CGY- D (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines.
NOTE: Just like earlier in the week with Toronto, I'm not going to mention the top line for Colorado. By all means play them, especially if you're doing multiple lineups. But let's look at three other stacks I like:
CGY: Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm (DK: $20.2K, FD: $22.2K)
High upside alternative to the MacKinnon line. The Kings have allowed 60 shot attempts per game over the past 10 games while Calgary has averaged 60.4 shot attempts (11.4 high danger) per game over the same period.
FLA: Dadonov-Barkov-Hoffman: (DK: $19.7K, FD: $20.9K)
Alternative #2. Probably my favorite stack tonight. My hope is that people look at Buffalo, see their numbers over their streak (2.32 goals allowed per game) and they pass on Florida tonight. On the other hand, it's a 5-game slate, so I don't think they'll go completely under the radar. Either way, this is a team that shoots the puck a lot and is scoring 3.28 goals a game.
BUF: Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart (DK: $19.6K, FD: $19.6K)
Buffalo snapped their 10-game win streak last night, but I'm going back to the well with them today. Florida has a sub-par defense and has been allowing 3.97 goals per game over the last 10. Best matchup on the night.
Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stack 🍪
CAR: Martinook-Wallmark-Svechnikov (DK: $12K, FD: $10.3K)
This stack bombed for me last time out, but maybe I was a game early. Either way, they're dirt cheap and are facing a bad Anaheim defense. I'll be rolling them out again.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.