Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

In a continuation of the last newsletter, I want to talk about pre-builds today. For me, this means running a set of lineup builds both without settings applied and with my settings applied. I find this useful because I'm able to see a variety of things:

• What players do I get a lot?

• What players do I not get or not very much?

• Is there a common theme to the lineups I'm getting such as 3-2 stacks or 3-3 stacks?

For me, this is important because I think we're past the point where we can just mash buttons and win in DFS. There are too many tools available and too many DFS players using those tools to build DFS lineups. Let's imagine that there's 1000 people using LineStar to build lineups for tonight. If you don't apply your own thoughts or strategies will your lineups be much different than everyone else's?

Like Bales once said, "how can I benefit most when others are wrong?" I think this is an important strategy when using tools and optimizers. I like to think about what I'm getting and if that makes sense. Or how can I be different in my builds to give me an advantage.

What do you think? I know I'm talking in reference to playing multiple lineups, but I think this works if you're playing 1-3 lineups as well. Share your thoughts in LineStar Chat.

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.

You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg." This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

• SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Anders Nilsson - OTT (DK: $7300, FD: $8600)

Is it just me, or does picking a goalie feel like picking a DST in NFL? There's so much variance with goalie that it almost isn't worth spending up unless they can get the a win and shutout (and the 35-shot bonus on DraftKings). So for tonight, I'm willing to play with fire and run out Nilsson. He's not going to get a shutout, but there's a likely chance that he sees more than 35 shots.

Centers

Nathan MacKinnon - COL (DK: $8200, FD: $8800)

I kind of feel like the top lineup tonight is going to have McDavid or MacKinnon. I'm going to play my homer card and go with MacKinnon. MacKinnon has a fairly good matchup against an Edmonton team that is giving up 3.4 goals a game over their last 5 games and gives up 63.9 fantasy points/game to centers

Wingers

William Nylander - TOR (DK: $5500, FD: $5700)

Nylander comes in at a great price and has a good matchup against Detroit. I'd prefer to stack him with Matthews, but not a bad one-off either.

Defensemen

Roman Josi - NSH (DK: $7000, FD: $6200)

I saw someone compare Josi to Brent Burns from a couple years ago, and I think that's true. He's expensive but he offers a lot, DFS-wise, in that he shoots the puck, blocks the puck, and gets a ton of minutes.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Jared McCann: PIT - C (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.5K)

Kasperi Kapanen: TOR - W (DK: $3.6K, FD: $4.4K)

Shea Theodore: VGK - D (DK: $4.4K, FD: $4.3K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks. Along with these stacks you can compare their prices, see how LineStar projects them, as well as their combined average fantasy points per game over the last 5 games.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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