Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

I want to touch on something I've been noticing in the chats over the weekend. This isn't just in NHL chat, but for other sports as well. Two of the common things I'm seeing are complaints about projections or what the lineup builder is giving you.

The first thing I think people need to remember is the lineup builder isn't a person. It can't make decisions on whether a person is a good play or not because all it sees is salary and the projection. It only gives you what is put into it.

If you're getting too much of a player, you'll need to consider if their projection is wrong. Maybe they're a little over-projected for their salary. Same goes if you're not getting more of a player that you like. It could be that they're under-projected compared to other players in that salary tier.

Personally, I tweak projections a lot. I start with the base projections, as that gives me an indication of what other people are getting and I have to decide if I agree with that or not. I make changes and run the builder again to see if that's more in line with how I want to play the slate.

I'm hoping to get a little more in depth with this. Not just my experiences, but approaches that I think can be helpful and repeatable for future slates.

Let me know what you think about this. Share your thoughts in LineStar Chat.

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.

You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg." This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

• SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Thomas Greiss - NYI (DK: $7700, FD: $7800)

Greiss is in that sweet spot of where I like to spend for goalie and NYI has been one of the best teams in the NHL lately, so I like him for the win equity tonight as well.

Centers

Pierre Luc Dubois - CLS (DK: $5800, FD: $5700)

Based on his price and recent numbers, you can probably already see why I like PLD tonight. I think he's great as a one-off, but I think there's some leverage available if you run a full stack of the Columbus top line. It's simply not as "obvious" as some other lines on the slate and probably stays low-owned tonight.

Wingers

Jamie Benn - DAL (DK: $5600, FD: $6800)

It's hard not to like Benn tonight, considering his price and recent shot volume. I also like him as a stack, either with the full line or paired with Hintz or Seguin.

Defensemen

Miro Heiskanen - DAL (DK: $5300, FD: $5500)

I think there are lots of great options at D tonight, but I think Heiskanen is one of my favorites if you're looking for someone in that $5K price tier with shot + block equity. On DK, I think he stands a good chance of getting the block bonus, and possibly the shot bonus as well.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Roope Hintz: DAL - C (DK: $4.1K, FD: $5.8K)

Alex Killorn: TB - W (DK: $4.2K, FD: $4.8K)

Mattias Ekholm: NSH - D (DK: $4.2K, FD: $4.3K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks. Along with these stacks you can compare their prices, see how LineStar projects them, as well as their combined average fantasy points per game over the last 5 games.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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