- LineStar Hat Trick
- Posts
- LineStar® Hat Trick 11/18 | NHL needs to fix the schedule
LineStar® Hat Trick 11/18 | NHL needs to fix the schedule
Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.
Check out the NHL Season Preview & Strategy Guide
Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.
Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.
I hope NHL DFS has been treating you well.
I don't know about you, but I'd love if the NHL could adjust their scheduling so we could break the pattern of 2-3 games one night, then 10-11 games the next. Tonight, we get 11 games, with 5 of those games starting at 7PM Eastern. What does that mean? The next games don't kick off until 8PM Eastern, so we'll have five games going (and taking intermission) at almost the same time to start the slate. But enough complaining, let's dive in.
Tonight's Slate
Here are the team numbers for tonight's slate. Remember, this looks at times over their last 10 regular-season games, going back to the 2020-2021 season.
I mentioned this in chat, but I often use this to look for mismatches (teams that give up a lot of shots facing teams that take a lot of shots) and spots where both teams have sub 50% CF%. So if you're looking for "sneaky" stacks, that's where I start.
Tonight's Targets
Goaltender
**Not all goaltenders have been confirmed as starters at the time of this writing**
My preference is to correlate goalie with one of my stacks, but my favorite tonight is:
Elvis Merzlikins - CLS (DK: $8200, FD: $7600)
Arizona is the worst team in the league. Merzlikins should do well. Columbus should win. However, the DFS gospel according to budaman clearly says "What's supposed to happen usually don't. THAT'S RIGHT."
So keep that in mind.
Center
My favorite:
Boone Jenner - CLS (DK: $5200, FD: $4300)
Draisaitl, Matthews, McDavid. Take your pick and then pair him with Boone Jenner.
Wing
My favorite:
Oliver Bjorkstrand - CLS (DK: $7100, FD: $6700)
I think the price tag and other options on the slate keep his ownership south of what I calculate that it should be. Worth the risk, I think.
Defensemen
My favorite:
Ben Chiarot - MON (DK: $4100, FD: $4000)
Pittsburgh is allowing 3.7 goals a game, and Chiarot is a cheap option to get exposure to this game.
If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top-ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all-in on any player probably isn't a great move.
With DFS, I try to think of these things:
Who makes the most sense to play?
Where is the field leaning?
Who has been the most consistent?
Who has the most upside?
Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?
Spending Down
Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers", but these are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.
My favorite:
Ondrej Kase - TOR (DK: $2500, FD: $3300)
There's a lot of variance in cheap players, I've found, so if we're going to punt, let's punt and take one of the cheapest, but still a very viable option, for this slate.
Line Stacks
Before going further, let's make this clear:
You 👏 dont 👏 have 👏 to 👏 stack.
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.
Here are my favorite stacks (ranked in order of preference) for tonight:
And the RISK IT FOR THE BISCUIT stack... let's go with CGY1
Keep in mind, these are MY favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.
ZeroInDenver's Projected Ownership
Don't say I never do anything for y'all. Here are my top projected goalies and skaters. Assume anyone not listed is projected at 5% or less.
According to my calculations, ownership should be really spread out tonight.
If this helps, let me know!
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.
🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨
Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to Monkey Knife Fight who deposit/play $10!
Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See Monkey Knife Fight landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee combo instead of the 3-months.