Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

We get a mid-sized slate tonight with 5-games, but nothing on the West Coast, so no late night sweats or news to worry about.

I don't have any real words of wisdom for today. We've had some good discussions in chat and I REALLY appreciate people jumping in to add their thoughts and share their process. My personal approach to DFS is I'm looking at ways to improve my process. I'm always happy to share my thoughts or process so if you have any questions, don't be afraid to speak up. I'm happy to discuss in chat or dive a little deeper in a newsletter.

If there's anything you're struggling with or would like to see, hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight.

You'll notice I added a metric at the end called "ScoreAgg". This is the sum of a team's GF60, opposing GA60, and the xGF60 and opposing xGA60 from Natural Stat Trick. I've been testing this out as an indicator on teams to focus on (or avoid). Let me know if you find this helpful.

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

• SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Anders Nilsson - OTT (DK: $7100, FD: $7400)

I'm absolutely playing with fire with this one, and remember I don't play cash games, but I like Nilsson for his price as well as how goalies have done against Philly over the past 5 games.

Centers

Evgeny Kuznetsov - WAS (DK: $6600, FD: $7600)

Outside of his last game, Kuznetsov has been hot and I'm going to continue to play him at that price. On these smaller slates, I've started to focus more on powerplay correlation, so I don't mind playing Kuznetsov with Ovechkin or Backstrom and getting exposure to both even strength lines.

Wingers

Taylor Hall - NJD (DK: $6600, FD: $7300)

This is purely a gut call. I don't really love the matchup and recency bias is a B since NJ kept me from nice things the other night. Still, I think he comes in a little underpriced and is worth the gamble on a smaller slate.

Defensemen

Shea Weber - MON (DK: $6500, FD: $6000)

Another gut call, another not-so-great matchup, but I love the way he's been playing lately and I love the shot volume.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Colin White: OTT - C (DK: $4.2K, FD: $4.6K)

Oliver Bjorkstrand: CLS - W (DK: $4.4K, FD: $4.9K)

Tyson Barrie: TOR - D (DK: $4K, FD: $4.3K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks. Along with these stacks you can compare their prices, see how LineStar projects them, as well as their combined average fantasy points per game over the last 5 games.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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