Written by LineStar Fantasy Wizard @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

I don't know about y'all, but this has been a hard week for those running the #dadlife (or #momlife). I'm happy it's Friday where I can order a pizza and hang out at home and watch hockey all night.

Before we jump into tonight. I have a few thoughts and feelings. For the most part, I've been sticking to stacking Lines 1 and 2. Now I've been doing some backtesting, and I don't think this is the way to go, even on larger slates. For one, there seems to be plenty of scoring from 3rd lines. Also, they're usually cheap enough to fit a full first line from a top team like Washington, Boston, or Tampa. They're also typically really low owned, so you get a ton of leverage even if you can get a couple goals from them. This week I've been incorporating 3rd lines into my lineups more and I've been doing a bit better this week. The risk, of course, is that you get a goal from that line, but maybe it's unassisted or one of the players on that line gives you a donut.

Using the LineStar Stack Finder, here are the top projected 3rd lines for tonight. The Stack Finder makes it really easy to filter and sort so that you can look at the lines on their own and see at a quick glance what the cost is, implied value, and what power play lines the players sit on.

What do you all think? Hit me up in chat.

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight:

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

• SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Thomas Greiss - NYI (DK: $7600, FD: $7700)

I'm feeling like risking it for the biscuit tonight. Greiss faces one of the top teams in the league, but in my experience, I haven't typically done well in stacking against the Islanders at home. There's a lot of upside if Greiss can keep the puck out of the net and his price gives you a lot of flexibility in your lineups.

Centers

Elias Pettersson -VAN (DK: $7200, FD: $7100)

This is going to burn me. I've been going heavy on VAN1 the past week and it's been VAN2 doing all the work. Pettersson gets a tougher matchup tonight but I'm going to hop on board this train and hope it keeps going.

Wingers

Kyle Palmieri - NJ (DK: $6300, FD: $5800)

I'll admit that there's a bit of chasing with Palmieri after his last performance against Tampa Bay. But looking at his numbers and price compared to other top options on the slate, can you really blame me? Plus he gets a pretty good matchup against a Philly team that is allowing 3.4 goals a game over their last 10 games.

Defensemen

Brent Burns - SJ (DK: $6600, FD: $7100)

I always love playing Burns for the late night hammer. Besides, think of all the times Hellebuyck has ruined lineups for us this season. How's that for a personal revenge narrative?

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Boone Jenner: CLS- C (DK: $3.6K, FD: $4.5K)

Josh Leivo: VAN - W (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4.5K)

Radko Gudas: WAS - D (DK: $3.7K, FD: $3.5K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

I'm going to do stacks a little differently moving forward. I'm going to provide you with the top projected owned stacks, my favorites, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks. Along with these stacks you can compare their prices, see how LineStar projects them, as well as their combined average fantasy points per game over the last 5 games.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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