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- LineStar® Hat Trick 10/9 | Happy Forsberg Tuesday
LineStar® Hat Trick 10/9 | Happy Forsberg Tuesday
Written by LineStar Fantasy Wizard @ZeroInDenver
Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick. First Forsberg Tuesday of the 2018-2019 NHL season.
If you've been following since the beginning of the season, I've given tips on selecting forwards, defensemen, and goaltenders.
Today, I want to get into stacks. I've mentioned it before, but I live and die by stacking in GPPs. Remember, on each goal, you have the goal scorer and up to two other players picking up an assist. That means a total of three players in your lineup that can pick up points on a goal. That translates to a potential 7.5 points on DraftKings and 29.6 points on FanDuel. Keep in mind that not every goal will have two assists, and some goals may have no assists at all.
Now, there are several different ways you can stack in NHL DFS. You can stack: (Note: DraftKings allows a max of 6 skaters from a team. FanDuel allows a max of 4 skaters from a team.)
Full Forward line - Example: Stacking the first line of Nashville, which consists of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson.
Full Forward line plus a defenseman - Example: Stacking the first line of Nashville, which consists of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson PLUS P.K. Subban (who also shares ice time with them on the top powerplay unit.
Powerplay Unit - Example: Stacking the first powerplay unit for Nashville, which consists of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson PLUS P.K. Subban, and Craig Smith.
Of course, besides the risk of a stack not scoring any points, there is the potential that you might not be able to fit a stack into lineups due to salary constraints.
All that said, there's several things that I look for when selecting stacks:
High FPPG to Line under Skater vs Opp Team
High Goals/G under Goalies
High Value in Stack Finder
High Vegas in Stack Finder
You'll find that picking stacks is part looking at numbers/matchups and part sorcery. One last tip I'll add is that if I think a certain team is going to be popular, I might stack the second or third line instead in GPP to differentiate.
I hope that gives you some insight into stacking. Hit me up in the chat if you have any other questions or if any part of this didn't make sense.
There's a 6 game main slate on tap tonight, so let's get into it.
High Priced Goaltending
Pekka Rinne, NSH (vs CGY) (DK: $8.4K, FD: $8.8K)
Nashville home opener and Forsberg Tuesday. What could go wrong?
Value Goaltending
Curtis McElhinney, CAR (vs VAN) (DK: $7.7K, FD: $7.6K)
It looks like McElhinney will start tonight. He did well his last time out against Columbus and I like him at home against Vancouver tonight.
#BiscuitInTheBasketWatchList 🚨
For those of you who aren’t familiar with hockey, “biscuit in the basket” is a term for scoring a goal. Here I’m going to give a center, wing, and defensemen for the top and value pricing tiers that I think has a good chance to score a goal.
Tyler Seguin: DAL – C (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.9K)
Checks all the boxes, plus he's got a nice Corsi For % of 69% so far this season.
This is important because there's no time of possession metric like there is in football or basketball. Corsi is an advanced statistic in hockey to measure shot attempts, which includes shot attempts that were blocked or missed the net. CF% is a ratio of a team's corsi for versus corsi against. Put simply, a high CF% means a team is spending more time and taking more shot attempts in the offensive zone.
Filip Forsberg: NSH - W (DK: $6.9K, FD: $7.8K)
Why Forsberg Tuesday? Here's a look at Forsberg goals scored by day of the week since the 2015-2016 season:
Morgan Rielly: TOR - D (DK: $6K, FD: $5.6K)
Rielly is in that magical spot of 5 or more shots + blocks a game and plays on the top powerplay unit for Toronto.
Value Sticks
Similar to the biscuit-in-the-basket watch list, in this section I’ll provide a center, wing, and defensemen who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.
Nolan Patrick PHI – C (DK: $4.5K, FD: $4.8K)
Opening night in Philly and Patrick has been putting almost 3 shots on net a game.
Warren Foegele: C - W (DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.7K)
Averaging over 2 shots on net a game, but gets a good matchup against Vancouver tonight.
David Savard: CLS - D (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4K)
Paired up with Werenski tonight. Not a high ceiling but usually good for a couple shots and blocks a game.
Bottom of the Barrel
I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot.
Jordan Weal: - C (DK: $2.5K, FD: $3.3K)
Colin Wilson: COL- W (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.6K)
Tyler Myers: WPG - D (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.8K)
Line Stacks
Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You'll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. Here are some of my favorites today:
Jamie Benn-Tyler Seguin-Alexander Radulov (DK: $21.1K, FD: $22.6K)
Highest-projected stack on the night. Toronto has been giving up goals lately and I don't think you can ignore these fellas tonight.
Micheal Ferland-Sebastian Aho-Teuvo Teravainen (DK: $16.6K, FD: $16.8K)
Top stack by FPPG to Line. All three play on the top powerplay unit as well.
Claude Giroux-Sean Couturier-Jakub Voracek (DK: $17.4K, FD: $21.3K)
Home opener in Philly tonight. There's been a few home openers so far this year that have gotten out of hand. Mix in San Jose's sloppy play so far, this could be a big night for the Flyers.
Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stack 🍪
Boone Jenner-Riley Nash-Josh Anderson: (DK: $12.8K, FD: $12.3K)
I don't expect COL-CBJ to be a high scoring game tonight, but this stack is super cheap. You just about hit value if they get a goal and put a few shots on net.
Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.