Written by LineStar Fantasy Wizard @ZeroInDenver

Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick. While it's a federal holiday in the US, it's Thanksgiving Day in Canada and we have 3 early games on the slate.

Today, I want to get into selecting a goaltender. It's basically a mix of looking at numbers and a little wizardry. Really, for those of you that played MLB DFS, it's going to feel a lot like selecting a pitcher in MLB. You can oversimplify it (like we're going to do here) or you can dive down into more advanced analytics (like we'll do another day). Like I've mentioned in past issues of the newsletter, I really want to help those that are new to NHL DFS learn what to look for in the LineStar app.

Hindsight is 20/20, but let's look at Frederik Andersen from Saturday night and I'll explain what in the numbers I liked, and what concerned me.

For starters, I almost always want a goalie that can get me 30 saves or more. Check. Next, I'm looking to see if the opposing team is averaging 30 shots or more. Check. Now this is important. Pay attention to the number of goals allowed and the number of goals the opposing team is scoring. Do the math to get the save percentage. For example, if Andersen made 31 saves and let in 3 goals on average over his past five games, he's made 31 saves on 34 shots. That makes for a 0.912 save percentage. That's favorable. If it's under 0.900, I'll typically avoid that goalie or stack against him. Notice how the Goals/G numbers are highlighted in red underneath the last 5 and last 10 for Opp Team vs Goalie? That's not ideal. Is it a reason to fade? Not always, but it depends on the slate and what other options are available.

Like most things in DFS, there are no sure things. Top-tier goaltenders can get chased. In that case, if you really like your lineup but are unsure about goaltenders, do a second lineup with a different goaltender.

I know that's a lot to consider, especially if you're new to the sport, but it's a small slate and good to practice on, even if you're playing free contests. That said, let's go over who I like:

High Priced Goaltending

Martin Jones, SJ (@ NYI) (DK: $7.8K, FD: $8.5K)

It's a three game slate, so I don't want to overthink it. I don't trust Rask, and I prefer not to play goalies that are favored -250 or better. Fluery is an option, but he's been both good and bad so far this year. Jones has done the same, but he comes in at a discount compared to both which is why I'll probably be overweight on Jones today.

Value Goaltending

Robin Lehner, NYI (vs SJ) (DK: $7.1K, FD: $7.7K)

I'll be honest, Lehner is more of a "who's cheap that I don't think many people will pick that could have a good game" type of play.

#BiscuitInTheBasketWatchList 🚨

For those of you who aren’t familiar with hockey, “biscuit in the basket” is a term for scoring a goal. Here I’m going to give a center, wing, and defensemen for the top and value pricing tiers that I think has a good chance to score a goal.

Jack Eichel: BUF – C (DK: $6.7K, FD: $7.7K)

Second best on the slate for centers in shots per game over the last 5 games.

Evander Kane: SJ - W (DK: $7.1K, FD: $6.8K)

With Thornton going on injured reserve, it will be interesting to see what happens with the San Jose lines. Even if he stays on the third line, he'll get power play minutes and is always a goal scoring threat.

Ryan Pulock: NYI - D (DK: $4.9K, FD: $4K)

Decent discount against a team that'll be taking a lot of shots.

Value Sticks

Similar to the biscuit-in-the-basket watch list, in this section I’ll provide a center, wing, and defensemen who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Zack Smith: OTT – C (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.2K)

Rask was chased his first time out this year. While I don't expect him to give up 5 goals, I do believe he lets a couple in. I think Zack is one of them.

Erik Haula: VGK - W (DK: $4.1K, FD: $4.8K)

Plays on a line that sees a good number of scoring chances per game and has been shooting the puck more. My 2% owned goal call of the day.

Cody Ceci: OTT - D (DK: $3.1K, FD: $4.3K)

He doesn't have a high ceiling, but you can usually count on him to get 2 shots and 2 blocks per game.

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You'll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. Here are some of my favorites today:

Jonathan Marchessault-William Karlsson-Reilly Smith (DK: $19K, FD: $20.9K)

Buffalo gives up more fantasy points to the opposing first line than any other team on today's slate.

Anthony Beauvillier-Mathew Barzal-Josh Bailey (DK: $14.7K, FD: $16.8K)

I think Martin Jones gets decent ownership, which is why I want to play the other side of that in GPPs. On a slate with Boston, San Jose, and Vegas, I think this line gets overlooked.

Evander Kane-Antti Suomela-Joonas Donskoi (DK: $15K, FD: $14K)

Assuming this line stays intact (Thornton just went on injured reserve) this is one of my favorites today. Fun to watch, cheap, and a lot of upside.

Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stack 🍪

Jeff Skinner-Patrik Berglund-Kyle Okposo: (DK: $13.3K, FD: $16.1K)

I've been wrong on Fleury twice this year. First in rostering him in net and second in stacking against him, but I'm going to try stacking against him today. What could go wrong?

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.