LineStar® Hat Trick 10/8 | Happy Forsberg Tuesday

Written by LineStar Fantasy Wizard @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

Happy Forsberg Tuesday. I know we have some new people this year, so this is in reference to Filip Forsberg from the Nashville Predators. Going back several years, he has more goals on Tuesday than any day of the week. Granted, he's also played more games on Tuesday than any other day of the week. Bottom line, it's another narrative that you can buy into (or not).

Before we jump to tonight's slate, I want to think about the two winning lineups from Saturday's main slate, which was the last "big" slate.

First, you'll see that Lamoosh2332 won the Saturday with a 4-3 stack of Buffalo and Montreal with a Draisaitl one-off. There was no correlation between the goalie and skaters in his lineup.

On FanDuel, yutes won the Breakaway with a 4-3 stack of New York and Buffalo with a Mattias Ekholm one-off. Again, there was no correlation with the goalie and his skaters.

Looking at these lineups, and something to think about, is that a lot of goals are scored where a defenseman picks up a point through the goal or an assist. I think with line-stacking, there's a tendency to focus on doing a C-W-W stack, but I think it might be better to do a C-W-D stack, unless you're going for a 4-man with a C-W-W-D stack. It's something I've been trying to focus on more. Let me know what you think in chat or if you've tried something else that you think has been working so far this season.

Tonight's Targets

We've got an awesome 8-game slate tonight. Granted, we only have a game or two of data for most teams, but here's a look of the slate from a high level.

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down:

  • Columns W and L: Wins and Losses

  • Columns CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

  • Columns HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

  • Columns SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

  • Columns GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

Basically what I'm looking for here are teams that shoot the puck a lot that are facing teams that allow a lot of shots.

Now lets dig into this slate.

Favorite Goaltender

Pekka Rinne - NSH (DK: $8200, FD: $8400)

Rinne seems like the easy and safe move for tonight. San Jose is terrible. However, I don't think Rinne ends up being the highest scoring goalie on the slate, but I'm playing for the win equity in this one as Nashville should win.

Favorite Center

Vincent Trocheck -FLA (DK: $6400, FD: $6100)

Trocheck is a better value on FD, but I love him tonight. I think he goes overlooked. The thing I love about him is he shoots the puck a lot and he's paired with Hoffman and Connolly, who are off to pretty good starts this season.

Favorite Winger

Johnny Gaudreau - CGY (DK: $7500, FD: $7800)

If you're spending up at wing tonight, I think Gaudreau is one of the best options. He's almost automatic for me when he's playing at home. He's so good and has great upside. He also gets a great matchup against a Kings team that should be pretty bad this season.

Favorite Defensemen

Roman Josi - NSH (DK: $6200, FD: $5900)

There are a lot of good options at the sub $5000 level on both DraftKings and FanDuel that I'm not sure a lot of people spend up tonight. However, I really do like Josi. With as bad as San Jose has been, I definitely want to target Nashville players. Like I also mentioned, I want a defensemen from that game in hopes that I can pick up an assist on a goal that's tipped in.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Adrian Kempe: LA - C (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4.1K)

Brandon Tanev: PIT - W (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.7K)

Brett Pesce: CAR - D (DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.9K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Here are some of my favorite stacks for tonight:

RISK IT FOR THE BISCUIT STACK

This is my low ownership, high risk, and high upside stack. I feel gross putting Detroit here, but I think a lot of people will be on Gibson tonight. Detroit's been a bit of a surprise their first couple of games and I want to see how long it continues.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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