Written by LineStar Fantasy Wizard @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

It's Tuesday, which is good for tacos and Filip Forsberg. We also got this news today:

Is he back? Maybe. We'll need to keep an eye on news during the day and during pre-game warmups. We probably won't know definitively until then.

Before we get into the slate, I want to talk about playing the players and stacks you like, specifically when using the optimizer. So for today, I did a base run of lineups

One of the first things you might notice is that I have a lot of Tampa and Toronto stacks. This might not be what I want to do tonight, and let's pretend for the sake of this discussion that it's not. Instead, I really want Edmonton 1 as my top stack.

One way to get around this is by bumping up the projections for the players on this line. For me, I start by bumping up projections for each of those players. Here's a clip of me doing that:

You'll see, I change "Projection Percentage" from 2% to 5%. For me, I think 5% is a good place to start, but depending on your results, you might want to set it at 10%. What that value represents is how much you're increasing (or decreasing) the projection of that player.

I like to do this incrementally. I increase the projection a little, then do a new build and see if I'm closer to where I want to be.

You have to be careful though. As you raise projections on a player or a group of players, it could negatively affect other players in your lineup. In other words, you might get significantly less of another player or team because of that.

Keep in mind, this is just one way to get more of the players you like into lineups. If you have a better or more efficient way, share it with the group and hit me up in chat.

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight:

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

• SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Pekka Rinne - NSH (DK: $8300, FD: $8700)

Rinne has a .931 Save % and 2.00 GAA this season with a 6-0 record, so I have no problem rolling him out against a Chicago team that is only scoring 2.22 goals a game this season.

Centers

Auston Matthews - TOR (DK: $7500, FD: $8500)

One of the toughest things in playing Matthews is Toronto has so much talent that it's tough to pinpoint where Toronto's scoring will come from. They could score 5 goals and the top line for Toronto didn't join the party. Still, I really like Matthews tonight. He has a great matchup against a Washington team that is allowing 61.1 Corsi and 3.7 goals a game this season.

Wingers

James van Riemsdyk - PHI (DK: $6,400, FD: $6000)

Pittsburgh is only allowing 2.5 goals a game in their last 10 games, but Flyers-Penguins games tend to get pretty wild. Also, I'm going to continue to play JVR while he's sitting on the top line and powerplay unit for the Flyers and has the shot volume that he does.

Defensemen

Dougie Hamilton - CAR (DK: $6000, FD: $6500)

I really like Carolina tonight and I think that I'm going to have Hamilton in most, if not all, Carolina stacks tonight. Same reason as always for Dougie - shoots the puck, blocks shots, and gets a ton of ice time.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Nick Bjugstad: PIT - C (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3K)

Nick Ritchie: ANH - W (DK: $3.4K, FD: $3.5K)

Ryan McDonagh: TBL - D (DK: $3.8K, FD: $4.2K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

I'm going to do stacks a little differently moving forward. I'm going to provide you with the top projected owned stacks, my favorites, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks. Along with these stacks you can compare their prices, see how LineStar projects them, as well as their combined average fantasy points per game over the last 5 games.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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