LineStar® Hat Trick 10/25 | Five-Game Friday Slate

Written by LineStar Fantasy Wizard @ZeroInDenver.

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

We have a decent 5-game slate tonight, but before we jump into tonight, I want to highlight another tool in the LineStar app and site - the Stack Finder.

I find this really useful in finding stacks to play and inserting them into my lineups. I can view and sort stacks according to their projection, Vegas total, salary, implied value, ceiling, and floor.

I recorded a quick demo building a lineup below and wanted to point out a couple of things:

  1. Throw a goalie in your lineup first. I find this helpful in it keeps you honest with the "$ per slot" remaining.

  2. You can narrow down the stacks shown by limiting lines to the top 2 or 3 lines. I do the same thing by increasing minimum projection.

  3. I prefer to not show defensemen in my stacks and pick those manually.

Hopefully if you haven't used the stack finder or if you're new to the app, you find this useful. If you'd like to see me demo anything else, hit me up in chat.

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight:

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

  • W and L: Wins and Losses

  • CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

  • HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

  • SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

  • SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

  • SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

  • GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Anders Nilsson - OTT (DK: $7000, FD: $7500)

I'll admit, I like Nilsson more than anyone should for tonight, but he's cheap and he has a .935 Save% and 2.75 GAA so far this season.

Centers

Tomas Hertl - SJ (DK: $5700, FD: $6100)

Don't look at salaries. Just look at Matthews and Hertl shown side by side above. Now tell me if you'd spend an extra $2000 in salary for Matthews.

Wingers

Evander Kane - SJ (DK: $7000, FD: $7000)

I don't know how you can fade Ovechkin at this point, but let's say you can't afford him without having to punt in at least 2 spots in your lineup. If that's the case, hopefully you can fit Evander Kane. He pairs well with Hertl since they're on the same even strength line. Kane also puts a lot of shots on net and, as he's shown this season, definitely has slate-breaking talent.

Defensemen

Alexander Edler - VAN (DK: $6000, FD: $5400)

I love that late night defenseman hammer. Especially from someone like Edler who puts shots on net, blocks a few shots and plays a bunch of minutes. It's great for when you need that little extra push in your lineups to finish the slate.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Chris Tierney: OTT - C (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4.1K)

Wayne Simmonds: NJ - W (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.8K)

Cody Ceci: TOR - D (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.7K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

I'm going to do stacks a little differently moving forward. I'm going to provide you with the top projected owned stacks, my favorites, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks. Along with these stacks you can compare their prices, see how LineStar projects them, as well as their combined average fantasy points per game over the last 5 games.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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