LineStar® Hat Trick 10/2 | Let's Do That Hockey

Written by LineStar Fantasy Wizard @ZeroInDenver.

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick. NHL is finally back.

I'm going to get this out of the way. NHL is one of my favorite sports, but it can be a really frustrating sport for DFS. For starters, one of the first things you'll notice is that the contest selection and payouts aren't nearly at the level of NFL, NBA, or MLB. Comparatively speaking, I like to think that I'm playing NHL for lunch money. Also, it can be a slow sport in terms of fantasy points being accumulated. Don't be surprised if a good amount of time can elapse and your score and place in the leaderboard hasn't changed. However, NHL DFS is great in that goals can increase your position dramatically. There have been numerous occasions where a couple late goals have moved me from just outside of the pay line to solid cash.

Even with all the Debbie Downer talk, I'm excited for this season. Overall, my goal is to help you all get better at building lineups using the tools LineStar offers. If stuff doesn't make sense in the newsletter (or I have typos) let me know. With that said...

LETTTTTTTTTTTTTTTSSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

Morning Skate

One question I see the most from people new to NHL DFS is "when do lineups come out? " To put it simply, they don't. Instead, most teams conduct a "morning skate" where teams take the ice for 30 minutes or so in the morning to run drills and get loose for that evening's game. Beat writers often attend morning skates and take note of line rushes and may get a chance to interview coaches. From that, we get a pretty good idea of what goalie is starting that night. So the good news is that you can usually build your lineups during your lunch break without worrying about any major changes. That said, it's still a good idea to pop into chat or check Twitter around 30 minutes before lock, as any line changes or scratches are apparent as teams hit the ice for pre-game warmups.

Tonight's Targets

If you remember last year, I had a lot of fancy graphs that I used to rank players at each position where you could get a visual indication of how they match up. That's coming, but I need some data. So it's coming, but give it a couple weeks.

Goaltenders

Keep in mind I'm writing this on hockey eve, so only Craig Anderson is confirmed at this time. However, being the first game of the season, I wouldn't expect much to change. Below are the expected starters tonight.

Now, I'm going to try not to overthink much on the first day of the season, and I rely a lot on the LineStar tools. One of my favorite sorters is "Alerts".

Goaltender

Jordan Binnington - STL (DK: $7800, FD: $8400)

Frederik Andersen might be the "safest" goalie on the slate, but I think Binnington has a lot of upside and I want to see if he's as good as he was last season. He's also one of the most expensive on the slate, which I would expect to limit ownership a bit as others will probably gravitate towards Mike Smith.

Full transparency: I play a ton of lineups. I play 150+ every night. I feel a little disingenuous saying that I like a certain player when I'll have 12 different alternatives in lineups too. But I'm also trying to give some insight into players that I like a lot. Like I mentioned before, I'll add in my own graphs as we move into the season so you can see how everyone measures up in my model. That said, here's my favorite at each position.

Center

Auston Matthews - TOR (DK: $7700, FD: $8300)

Of all the top-tier players on the slate, Matthews is my favorite. He has a great matchup against Ottawa and shoots the puck a lot.

Wing

Mark Stone - VGK (DK: $6900, FD: $7400)

Expensive, but I think he'll be lower owned. Just guessing, but I think most of the interest in Vegas will be towards the top line (see below in the stacks section), but Stone makes for a good one off or part of a PP1 stack.

Defensemen

Alexander Edler - VAN (DK: $5100, FD: $5100)

Legit one of my favorite defensemen to play. Shoots the puck, blocks the puck, stays on the ice for a long time and gets power play time.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Artem Anisimov: OTT - C (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4.4K)

Tanner Pearson: VAN - W (DK: $4K, FD: $3.5K)

Marc-Edouard Vlasic: SJ - D (DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.7K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Here are my favorite stacks for tonight:

And for the biscuit... let's go with the reigning champs (who face the previous champs).

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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