Written by LineStar Fantasy Wizard @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

We get a six game slate tonight, but first let's look at last night.

Winning entries on DraftKings and FanDuel both had Boston1 in the winning lineups with Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak. That was one of the most expensive stacks of the night so I think that helped keep ownership under 10% for them. Where it gets a little wild is you'll see that Draftcharts took first place in the Scion of the Century contest with a Buffalo3 stack of Mitttelstadt, Vesey, and Sheary that was also paired with Ristolainen on D.

On FanDuel, jjdavid took first place in the breakaway and had an Arizona 2 stack of Dvorak, Garland, and Schmaltz.

The kicker with this is, at least to me, I'm not surprised by the Boston stack. I think it's good to stack one of the best lines in the league every night, especially when they share power play time as well. Buffalo 3 and Arizona 2 are a little surprising for me. Now I don't know these players and have no idea how they landed on those stacks. Maybe they ran an optimizer and got lucky. Draftcharts ran 61 lineups in that contest, so that's a possibility. But what if we're hand building? How could we get there?

One thing to look at is past performance, as recency bias is definitely a thing in DFS. You'll see Dvorak had a great game against Winnipeg his last time out. But what I want to point out is "Skaters vs Opp Team (last 20)" and "FPPG to Line." I've used this as an indicator of which lines I should stack from a team. Let's say I like Arizona. Should I stack the top line or the second or third line? Also, let's imagine that the top line is expected to be higher owned, but the second line looks better in terms of FPPG to Line? If that's the case, I don't think that the second line is a bad option.

What do you think? Hit me up in chat.

Tonight's Targets

Here's a high level look of team numbers for tonight:

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes: Corsi is shot attempts that the team has taken and allowed. "Shot attempts" include shots that are blocked or miss the net. CF% is the ratio of shot attempts made to shot attempts allowed. Elite teams and lines will have a CF% of 60% or greater.

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes. "High Danger" means shot attempts in the area closest to and in front of the goalie.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes. These are actual shots that hit the goal (or went in).

• SOT: Shots on target. This is the percentage of shots attempted that end up being a shot on goal.

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes. This is an average of the goals scored or allowed over the last 10 games (in this case 1-3 games).

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Phillipp Grubauer - COL (DK: $7900, FD: $8100)

Grubauer has been standing on his head to start the season and I'm going to continue to play him. On the other side of that, he does have a tough matchup against a talented, but mildly-underperforming Florida team. Still, I like Grubauer's price and upside if he can keep Florida from scoring tonight.

Centers

Connor McDavid -EDM (DK: $8100, FD: $9400)

The most expensive on the slate, but probably the best play considering his multi-goal, multi-point upside and matchup against a Detroit team that is giving up 4 goals a game.

Wingers

Rickard Rakell - ANH (DK: $5600, FD: $5800)

I wouldn't fault you for preferring Draisaitl or Ovechkin, but let's be real. If you're playing McDavid, you're going to have trouble making a balanced lineup with McDavid and Draisaitl or Ovi. This is why I really like Rakell. As consistent as he's been, he's a little underpriced. He doesn't get as great a matchup, but he puts the puck on net as much as the other wingers I like tonight and I feel it's a good play.

Defensemen

Dougie Hamilton - CAR (DK: $6300, FD: $6300)

Dougie has been pretty automatic for me. He's so consistent in that he gets off a bunch of shots every night and plays a ton of minutes. He's a big part of that offense and a good play every night.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

THE GREAT TYSON JOST: COL - C (DK: $2.9K, FD: $3.9K)

Dominik Kubalik: CHI - W (DK: $3.1K, FD: $3.6K)

Mike Matheson: FLA - D (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.6K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

I'm going to do stacks a little differently moving forward. I'm going to provide you with the top projected owned stacks, my favorites, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks. Along with these stacks you can compare their prices, see how LineStar projects them, as well as their combined average fantasy points per game over the last 5 games.

I don't agree with these ownership projections. I think Washington goes highly owned. Possibly more than Edmonton. I think Colorado will be popular too, but with MacKinnon listed as a game time decision, that could spread ownership across the first two lines.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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