Written by LineStar Fantasy Wizard @ZeroInDenver

Welcome back to the NHL Hat Trick. We're back after a weird Friday with no scheduled games. Instead, tonight, we get a solid slate with 9 games. But before we get into that, I want to get into how I calculate value.

Let's start with DraftKings. If you're playing double-ups, you're generally going to want to get 35 points to cash. This number can fluctuate and it seems like pay lines have been elevated to start the season, but 35 is generally a good number to shoot for.

So if you're shooting for 35 points, remember that you have 50 thousand in salary to fill. If you take 35 and divide that by 50, you get 0.7. That means you want 0.7 points for every $1000 you spend on salary.

How do we use this info? Let's look at Cam Atkinson for example, who is priced at $5700. At that price, I'm looking to get 3.99 points for him to hit his salary-based value (5.7 x 0.7). Looking at his numbers this year, you can see that aside from one game, he's exceeded 4 points, which is why he's generally a great play in cash games.

On FanDuel, and I'll be honest, I don't play cash games very often on FanDuel, but it's a similar process. Let's say that 150 is the score you need to cash in double ups. You have 55 thousand in salary to fill, which means you need roughly 2.73 fantasy points for every $1000 spent on salary. So in this case, let's look at Evgeny Kuznetsov. At $7400, he needs 20.2 fantasy points to hit value. Looking at his number this year, he's met or exceeded that only 50% of the time. As a DFS player, this is where you'll have to make a decision as to whether or not you think he can do that tonight.

GPP is a little bit different in that depending on the slate, top scores can vary, but the same math applies. On DraftKings, if you're shooting for 60 points, you're looking at a factor of 1.2 which means, in our example with Cam Atkinson, that you'd be looking for him to score 6.8 points at his salary. On FanDuel, I've seen top scores around 250, so you'd be looking at a factor of 4.55, you're looking at 33.7 points from Kuzy.

I'll say I pay much less attention to hitting value for GPP since I'm chasing a player's upside, but I find it useful when looking at players for cash games and how consistent they've been.

So let's move on to tonight's slate:

Goaltending

My three favorite goaltenders on the night:

Semyon Varlamov, COL (vs CGY) (DK: $8.1K, FD: $7.9K)

Varly is off to a great start this season and gets the Flames at home tonight. He' should face 30+ shots, so if he can keep the puck out of the net, it could be a good night for him.

Antti Raanta, ARI (vs BUF) (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.7K)

I think this could be one of the lowest scoring games on the slate. Buffalo has a talented roster, but they're just not scoring a lot. Raanta also isn't allowing very many goals, which is why I Iike him tonight.

John Gibson, ANH (@DAL) (DK: $7.2K, FD: $8.2K)

Want to get weird? Play John Gibson. Only a few idiots will play him. Dallas is scoring 4 goals a game, but Anaheim is only allowing 1.44 goals a game (best on the slate). What could go wrong?

#BiscuitInTheBasketWatchList 🚨

For those of you who aren’t familiar with hockey, “biscuit in the basket” is a term for scoring a goal. Here I’m going to give a center, wing, and defensemen for the top and value pricing tiers that I think has a good chance to score a goal.

Nathan MacKinnon: COL – C (DK: $7.2K, FD: $8.6K)

He's a better bargain on DraftKings, but if you're spending up (and not playing Matthews or Tavares) I like MacKinnon against Calgary tonight. MacKinnon is averaging a goal, almost 5 shots, and over 20 minutes per game.

Vladimir Tarasenko: STL- W (DK: $6.8K, FD: $7.6K)

I like Tarasenko, who has been averaging 5 shots a game, for several reasons. He gets a great matchup against Chicago, who is giving up 4.38 goals a game. Looking deeper into the numbers, Chicago is allowing 13.9 high danger shot attempts and Tarasenko is averaging 7.3 high danger shot attempts a game this season.

Duncan Keith: CHI - D (DK: $5K, FD: $5.6K)

St Louis has been allowing 4.28 goals a game so I have a bunch of interest in Chicago tonight. If you're stacking Chicago, I think it's worth trying to fit Keith into that stack.

Value Sticks

Similar to the biscuit-in-the-basket watch list, in this section I’ll provide a center, wing, and defensemen who are priced in the value tier. If I can find someone under priced on both sites, I’ll highlight them. But in some cases, it could be site specific.

Derek Stepan: ARI – C (DK: $5K, FD: $6.2K)

Stepan doesn't have a goal yet, but that could change tonight. The Yotes get the Sabres at home, and the Sabres are averaging 3.25 goals allowed per game. Stepan should see plenty of scoring chances as he has a 60% CF% and is averaging almost 4 shots a game.

Bo Horvat: VAN - C (DK: $5.5K, FD: $5.8K)

Horvat has two goals in 4 games and I think he nets one tonight.

Alex DeBrincat: CHI - W (DK: $5.3K, FD: $6K)

A little underpriced, considering he has 4 goals in 4 games so far this season.

Evgeny Dadonov: FLA - W (DK: $5.4K, FD: $6.3K)

Averaging over 3 shots a game and a little underpriced for the matchup.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson: ARI - D (DK: $4.3K, FD: $5K)

Tons of ice time and takes shots. Late night D hammer.

Ryan Pulock: NYI - D (DK: $4.8K, FD: $4.1K)

He's a better bargain on FanDuel but I don't mind him on DraftKings. At the time of the writing of this newsletter, no one was confirmed in net for Nashville, but Rinne has been in a pattern of good game, bad game, good game, so I think Pulock is worth a shot if Rinne starts.

Bottom of the Barrel

I did this last season, and I’ll do it again this season. These are the players in the bottom of the salary barrel but are in a good spot.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi: MON - C (DK: $3.5K, FD: $3.2K)

Dominik Kahun: CHI - W (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.6K)

Colin Wilson: COL- W (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.6K)

Henri Jokiharju: CHI - D (DK: $3.7K, FD: $3.9K)

Ron Hainsey: TOR - D (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.8K)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You'll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. Here are some of my favorites today:

FLA: Dadonov-Barkov-Bjugstad (DK: $15.5K, FD: $18.6K)

Vancouver is allowing a slate worst 70.3 Corsi allowed with 16.5 high danger Corsi allowed, so I'm definitely going to stack Florida's top line tonight.

STL: Maroon-O'Reilly-Tarasenko (DK: $18.3K, FD: $18.2K)

Chicago allows more fantasy points to the opposing top line than any other team on the slate.

CHI: DeBrincat-Toews-Kahun (DK: $15.3K, FD: $16.7K)

I expect this to be a high-scoring game. Both teams are allowing over 4 goals a game and this is my favorite stack on the Chicago side.

Risk-It-For-The-Biscuit Stack 🍪

TOR: Marleau-Matthews-Kapanen: (DK: $17.2K, FD: $18K)

Matthews is on pace to score one million goals this year and I think they get a little over-looked tonight facing Holtby (expected) in Washington. But Toronto could chase Holtby. Toronto has an insane 62.9 Corsi For, 14.5 high danger Corsi For, and 36.4 scoring chances per game.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.