LineStar® Hat Trick 03/11 | Digesting a 10-game Slate

Written by LineStar Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

ICYMI - The NHL Season Preview & Strategy guide goes over the basics of NHL DFS and what I look for when researching players.

Trying something a little different today. Instead of just listing teams and stacks I like, I'm going to give you a little more data for each line. Hopefully, this will give you a little more info and make better lineup decisions for tonight. Huge slate tonight with ten games on tap. If you have any questions or want to see anything else, let me know in chat!

With that said, let's take a look at tonight's slate... LETSSSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Tonight's Slate

Here's numbers on the teams from their past 10 games. Generally, I start my research by looking for teams in good spots. For example, teams that score goals (GF60) that are facing teams that give up goals (GA60). I also look at teams that shoot a lot (CF60) that are facing teams that give up a lot of shots (CA60).

Based on this, teams that stand out to me are NY Islanders, Tampa, Pittsburgh, Toronto, and Montreal.

Line Stacks

I'm going to do stacks a little differently. Let's take a deeper look at these teams and pick some solid stacks from that.

Starting with the Islanders, I really like the top line. Far and away, they're the best line. I wouldn't mind a JGP and Wahlstrom pair from the third line, but I don't have a lot of interest in the second line for the Islanders.

Lots to like about Pittsburgh tonight against Buffalo. I expect lots of interest in their top line, but they're expensive. I think PIT2 is a decent pivot. There's not a lot to love about ERod, so I think I'll stack Malkin and Kapanen with Letang or Matheson.

I haven't had much success stacking against Detroit this year, but that's not going to stop me from stacking one of the best teams in the league against one of the worst teams in the league. I like Tampa2 or a PP1 stack most.

Toronto was a bust the other night, but I'm still going to roll them out against a Winnipeg team that is giving up a ton of shot attempts and scoring chances each night. I don't like playing Joe Thornton. He's cheap, but he doesn't shoot the puck much. His best chance at value is picking up an assist or two. I prefer a Toronto PP1 stack (minus Thornton) or TOR2. I don't normally chase 3rd lines on a large slate like this, but I think TOR3 makes for a good pairing with an expensive stack tonight.

I'm going right back to Montreal, even though they played last night. I prefer MON2, but will have shares of MON1 as well.

Risk It For The Biscuit

Jason Robertson went HAM the other night, but I prefer DAL1 tonight. Chicago has a poor CF% and gives up a ton of shots. The difference tonight is Lankinen starts for Chicago, who is much better than Subban, but I think it's worth giving Dallas another shot tonight.

Goaltender Rankings

How to Read This: 

I'm giving you a comparison of LineStar projections vs the average fantasy points scored over their last 10 games. I've also given you their save percentage (over 0.910 is ideal), goals allowed (lower is better), saves per game (more is better), GAA (Goals Saved Above Average), and my projected upside for each goalie.

Generally, if I'm stacking a team, I'll correlate a goalie if I can. In GPPs, I may not have the salary to make this work. In this case, I usually spend down on someone that I expect will take a lot of shots and could pick up the W.

As always - double-check that your goalie is starting before the game starts.

My Favorites:

CASH: Andrei Vasilevskiy - TBL (DK: $8400, FD: $8700)

GPP: Elvis Merzlikins - CLS (DK: $7300, FD: $7000)

Forwards and Defensemen Rankings

How to Interpret C/D/W charts: In NHL DFS, I think it's most important to look at peripheral stats instead of goals which is why I put so much emphasis on shots. This includes shot attempts, high danger shot attempts (those shot attempts closest to the net with the highest probability of going into the net), shots on goal, and scoring chances. I've included projections and average fantasy points to see how each compares so you can more easily find value.

Center

My Favorite

Matthew Barzal - NYI (DK: $6000, FD: $6900)

In 38 minutes of ice time against the Devils this year, the Barzal line has 42 shot attempts, 22 shots on goal, and 2 goals.

Wing

My Favorite:

Josh Anderson - MON (DK: $5100, FD: $4800)

I mentioned before that I prefer MON2 over MON1, but I like Josh Anderson a lot as a one-off or if you're doing a MON PP1 stack.

Defensemen

My Favorite

Aaron Ekblad - FLA (DK: $5800, FD: $5800)

Lots of teams on this slate, so I can't include everyone, but I do like FLA PP1 as a stack tonight, and if you're not running that stack, I think Ekblad is a good way to get exposure to that power play unit.

Bottom of the Barrel

Here are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Mikael Backlund: CGY - C (DK: $ 4400, FD: $ 4300)

Zach Hyman: TOR- W (DK: $4500, FD: $4900)

Gustav Forsling: FLA - D (DK: $ 2900, FD: $ 3600)

Disclaimer: Keep in mind, plays and thoughts listed are my own. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck today! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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