LineStar® Hat Trick 03/10 | Money on the Table

Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

I got a question last night regarding leaving money on the table in lineups. In other words, how much of my salary do I leave or recommend leaving in lineups. In general, my take is this: You don't need to use all the salary allotted in your lineups. If you do, that's fine. If you don't, that's fine too. But when you get to the end of your lineup build and you have $6000 left and the player you like is $5500, I don't think you need to spend up and pick a $6000 player just because that's what you have left. I think leaving $500 on the table is perfectly fine.

On smaller slates, I might force my lineups to leave at least $1000 on the table, but these are the settings I typically run (for DraftKings):

For the most part, my lineups will max out salary along with a few that will leave $300-$500 on the table. But is that the right way to do it? Let's take a look at what some of the pros did in last Tuesday's (3/3) $10 Twine on DraftKings.

You'll see that most of them stayed pretty close to using max salary, with boggslite and Testosterown being the exception. Now, if we look at the top 40 in that contest, you'll see the same thing. Most of the top lineups will max out salary or come close to it.

Hopefully that helps and if you have any other questions, I'm happy to tackle them in a future newsletter. Let me know in LineStar Chat

LETSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Tonight's Targets

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

  • W and L: Wins and Losses

  • CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

  • HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

  • SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

  • GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

  • ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

The Popular Choice: Igor Shesterkin - NYR (DK: $7000, FD: $8100)

My Favorite: Juuse Saros- NSH (DK: $7300, FD: $8600)

Saros has a 1.83 GAA and .938 GAA over the past month and is my favorite play at goal tonight.

Centers

The Popular Choice: Auston Matthews - TOR (DK: $8400, FD: $8600)

My Favorite: Dylan Larkin - DET (DK: $6400, FD: $6700)

Imagine playing Red Wings in March... I know, it's kind of wild, but Carolina hasn't been playing well lately and are allowing 3.2 goals a game over their last 10.

Wingers

The Popular Choice: William Nylander - TOR (DK: $5900, FD: $6500)

My Favorite: Tyler Toffoli - VAN (DK: $6000, FD: $5300)

Between the two, Nylander and Toffoli don't have great matchups, but I love their price. Vancouver is just outside a wild card spot and gets this matchup on home ice, which I think could benefit Toffoli tonight.

Defensemen

The Popular Choice: Jeff Petry - MON (DK: $5000, FD: $4800)

My Favorite: Ryan Pulock - NYI (DK: $5500, FD: $5200)

Projecting ownership at D is always trickier for me, but my feeling is that with studs on the slate, people will try to pay up at center or wing to get a Matthews or Kucherov instead of paying up for someone like Josi. I think Montreal is going to get some looks, so I think Petry will get solid ownership tonight. However, I'm going to lean to the late night hammer with Pulock.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Nick Suzuki: MON - C (DK: $4000, FD: $4300)

Justin Williams: CAR - W (DK: $4300, FD: $3800)

Filip Hronek: DET - D (DK: $4500, FD: $3700)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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