LineStar® Hat Trick 03/03 | Late Night With Captain Jack

Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

I'm continuing to roll with these graphs. They're part of my process in picking teams and lines to stack, as well as where I want players from in terms of one-offs or mini stacks. We have a 10-game slate tonight, and for the most part, you can't play everyone - or you can, but you're going to throw away at least 30-40% of your lineups. So why not target who makes the most sense?

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LETSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Tonight's Targets

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

  • W and L: Wins and Losses

  • CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

  • HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

  • SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

  • GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

  • ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

My Favorite:

Jack Campbell - TOR (DK: $8000, FD: $8000)

Captain Jack has done well since moving to Toronto. On a slate with Blackwood, I think he goes overlooked.

Centers

My Favorite:

Auston Matthews - TOR (DK: $8500, FD: $9000)

I don't get the opportunity very often to use Matthews as a late hammer, so I'm going to take advantage of that opportunity when I can.

Wingers

My Favorite:

Jordan Eberle - NYI (DK: $5400, FD: $6300)

One of the cheapest wingers in my top 5 today, but has the best matchup. EZ.

Defensemen

My Favorite:

Kris Letang - PIT (DK: $6700, FD: $6600)

Pittsburgh is kind of a mess right now, but they play Ottawa tonight. I've said before that I have trouble picking the right forward line to stack, but I usually feel pretty safe playing Letang, as he usually factors into at least some of the scoring for Pittsburgh.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Nick Cousins: VGK - C (DK: $3000, FD: $3600)

Bobby Ryan: OTT - W (DK: $4300, FD: $4600)

Mikhail Sergachev: TB - D (DK: $4500, FD: $4400)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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