LineStar® Hat Trick 02/28 | Friday Feelings

February 28, 2020

Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

I got some decent feedback on these graphs from last night so I'm adding them again for tonight. You'll see that Vegas really stands out for tonight. Consider them the chalk. For me, I'll probably limit exposure and push more of that to teams like Philly, Columbus, and Carolina. A little contrarian, but like the saying goes, "what's supposed to happen usually don't."

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LETSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Tonight's Targets

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

  • W and L: Wins and Losses

  • CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

  • HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

  • SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

  • GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

  • ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

My Favorite:

Tristan Jarry - PIT (DK: $8100, FD: $8500)

Pittsburgh is a heavy favorite but Jarry has been a dud the last couple times out, so I think that keeps his ownership down tonight. Still, we know the potential is there and goalies facing Anaheim have fared well.

Centers

My Favorite:

Evgeni Malkin - PIT (DK: $7200, FD: $7800)

If Jarry is going to pick up the win, someone's going to need to score for Pittsburgh. I really like Malkin tonight. This line should be relatively higher owned, but they're in a good spot and I think Malkin flies a little under the radar with options like Crosby, Zibanejad, and MacKinnon in the top-tier.

Wingers

My Favorite:

Kevin Fiala - MIN (DK: $5800, FD: $5600)

Fiala has been a staple in my lineups recently and is a good pivot if you want to fade Vegas studs tonight.

Defensemen

My Favorite:

Cale Makar - COL (DK: $5500, FD: $5400)

Here we have 5 players with similar shot volume. Makar seems a little underpriced for me and I really love his willingness to take shots, especially when on the power play.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

JT Compher: COL - C (DK: $4000, FD: $4500)

Nick Foligno: CLS - W (DK: $4100, FD: $5000)

Jaccob Slavin: CAR - D (DK: $4400, FD: $5000)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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