Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

I've talked quite a bit before about how to navigate large slates. Part of it is finding out what we can exclude from our consideration, but I also think it's important to see what stands out.

I've been looking more at teams that score a lot of goals that are facing teams that give up a lot of goals. If we expand upon that, we can see what teams shoot the puck a lot that face teams that allow a lot of shots and teams that have a high number of high danger shot attempts that are facing teams that allow a high number of high danger shot attempts:

Next, on a large slate like this, I like to look at what teams look like for shot attempts, shots on goal and high danger shot attempts if we only look at players from the top 2 lines since these are often what I want to play the most.

I try to see what overlaps. The more a team pops up, the more I want to play them. In hockey, it's really hard to predict goals, but since goals come from shots, I want to chase what can lead to goals. EZ.

But now, the kicker for me is what do I get in my builds? I usually feel that the harder it is for me to get a team that I like in my lineups, the lower owned they'll be and the more leverage I'll have over the field.

You'll see that some of the teams that bubble up the most for me are buried in my portfolio of lineups. The trick becomes, how do I finesse my lineups to get more of who stands out (WPG, VAN, etc) and less of who doesn't (TOR). I typically do that through a combination of lowering projections or stack exposures.

For me, it all goes back to the thinking of "I'd rather lose with who I like and who stands out to me, than to lose with what the optimizer 'gave' me.

What do you think? Anyone else try to finesse their lineups? Let me know in LineStar Chat

LETSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Tonight's Targets

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

• SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

• ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

*Update: Cory Schneider is starting for NJ.

Centers

My Favorite:

Bo Horvat - VAN (DK: $5800, FD: $6100)

I've added a few more metrics to the skater graphs. I've included Opp FPPG to Line, Power Play shot attempts and Shots on Goal. Opp FPPG to Line is a good indication of what the opposing team is giving up to skaters so that we can identify teams with poor defense or where a certain line may be at an advantage at home, for example. Power play shot attempts and shots on goal are important to me because I want players who will shoot the puck when they're on the power play. Goals are hard to predict, but I think if you aim for players with higher shot volumes, it will pay off over time.

This is why I'm on Horvat for tonight. He comes in at a great price and has a shot volume that's equal to or not far behind players that are priced much higher.

Wingers

My Favorite:

Mike Hoffman - FLA (DK: $5400, FD: $6500)

Like I mentioned earlier, you compare Hoffman's shot volume to someone like Pastrnak's, who is several thousand more in salary, and Hoffman becomes a bit of a no-brainer tonight.

Defensemen

My Favorite:

Neal Pionk - WPG (DK: $5000, FD: $4600)

Sticking with the theme of cheaper players/higher shot volume, I really like Pionk tonight. If you were following along before, you'll know that I like Winnipeg tonight and I think you could do a solid 4-man stack with Pionk at D.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Josh Norris: OTT - C (DK: $2500, FD: $) *Not on FD

Robert Thomas: STL - C (DK $4000, FD: $4400)

Craig Smith: NSH - W (DK: $4400, FD: $4500)

Mike Reilly: OTT - D (DK: $3500, FD: $3900)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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