Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

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Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

There have been a few things that have been keeping me up at night with NHL DFS. I can basically summarize them with these questions...

• What would I do with perfect ownership percentages?

• Can we accurately predict stack ownership?

• How can I generate my own ownership percentages?

The first one is simple, and I don't know if there's a definitive answer. Let's say that the LineStar Ownership for tonight is correct and Alex Ovechkin is the highest owned player at almost 11%. What do we do with that? Do I play him at 100% and go way over the field? 11% really isn't that high anyway. So should I fade him completely?

I think one thing to keep in mind is that ownership will vary from contest to contest and as you move up in stakes. You might see Ovechkin at 11% at the low stakes GPPs, but in smaller field contests, or higher stakes contests, you might see him at 40%. To me, it almost seems better to play who I like. Should I really fade a player that I like because other DFS players are going to play him? I think it really comes down to whether or not I like that player or if there's a better alternative

The next part of that is can we accurately predict stack percentages? If Ovechkin is 11%, it wouldn't surprise me if his line mates are 5% owned or less on a slate as big as tonight's. Washington 1 stacked lineups might only make up 5% of the field on a larger GPP. That's not unreasonable. What complicates matters more is that we're assuming everyone is doing a 3-man stack. I typically run 4-mans where I might include Carlson or someone like Oshie, for example. Some people run mini stacks as well where they might only play Ovechkin and Wilson. There are a lot of combinations to where my thoughts continue to boil down to this: I think it benefits me more to play who I like than try to chase the field in terms of individual ownership or stack ownership.

Instead, I've been putting more effort into trying to generate my own ownership percentages. One way I've been doing this is by generating multiple groups of lineup sets with the optimizer and then compiling them and seeing what percentages I'm getting.

For example, the exposure button will show me what stacks I'm getting and how much. For me, this can be huge as it gives me an indication of where other people might be going with their lineups. I usually try this with different lineup settings and stack times to give me a broad idea of what's coming back.

Looking at player exposure is helpful to me too. I will back-check these players. Just because the optimizer "gives" me a lot of a player doesn't mean that it's a good play. Double check that. Remember - the optimizer is not a human. It just "gives" players based on whatever criteria you're building on.

What I've been trying to do more of, and have had great success with, is making sure my lineups include players that I like , especially when I'm not getting them in builds. I've found that if I like a team and I'm struggling to get them into lineups, then anyone else using an optimizer is probably not getting a lot of that team either. I've won GPPs by going my own path and "forcing" the optimizer to play what I like.

What do you think? Anyone else think of or try the same things? Let me know in LineStar Chat

LETSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Tonight's Targets

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

• W and L: Wins and Losses

• CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

• HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

• SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

• SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

• Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

• SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

• GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

• ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

Juuse Saros - NSH (DK: $8300, FD: $8100)

Saros is my top ranked goaltender tonight. He faces a depleted Ottawa team that played last night, and I think he's worth spending up for tonight.

You'll see I updated the graphic above to include their projected numbers in comparison to how goalies have fared over the past 5 games against that opponent.

Centers

My Favorite:

Sebastian Aho - CAR (DK: $7300, FD: $8100)

Tonight's the night. Canes made some big moves at the trade deadline, and in case you missed it, beat Toronto over the weekend with a zamboni driver in net. Lots of good energy on that bench and I'm going to go with the highest volume shooter in that list.

Wingers

My Favorite:

Tyler Toffoli -VAN (DK: $5700, FD: $5600)

One of the highest volume shooters at wing tonight, and I think I like him even more on a full line stack

Defensemen

My Favorite:

Hampus Lindholm - ANH (DK: $4900, FD: $4000)

The Ducks made some interesting moves at the trade deadline, and I think they're a team worth taking a flyer tonight. This is a case where I think you can do a 3-man stack with Lindholm and a C and W, or just use him as a one-off tonight.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

• Who makes the most sense to play?

• Where is the field leaning?

• Who has been the most consistent?

• Who has the most upside?

• Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Boone Jenner: CLS - C (DK: $4200, FD: $4300)

Andrew Mangiapane: CGY - W (DK: $3500, FD: $4100)

Mike Green: EDM - D (DK: $3400, FD: $3500)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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