LineStar® Hat Trick 02/20 | Hockey Grind Keeps Going

February 20, 2020

Written by LineStar Daily Fantasy Life Coach @ZeroInDenver.

Got NHL DFS questions or want to see something covered in this newsletter? Hit me up in LineStar Chat.

Welcome to the NHL Hat Trick.

Lots going on. NBA is back. LineStar posted some pretty significant updates to their app on iOS as well. There are more changes coming and I'm planning on putting out some videos to drop some nuggets on how to use the new tools. In the meantime, let's look at NHL where we have a solid 8-game slate for tonight.

In case you missed it, here are some newsletters that went over basic strategy in NHL:

Any questions for tonight? Let me know in LineStar Chat

LETSSSSSSSSGOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Tonight's Targets

First - a lot of this data might be foreign to most of you, so let me break it down (numbers over the last 10 games):

  • W and L: Wins and Losses

  • CF%, CF60, CA60: This is Corsi For %, Corsi For/60 minutes, Corsi Allowed/60 minutes

  • HDCF60, HDCA60: This is High Danger Corsi For/60 minutes and High Danger Corsi Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SF60, SA60: This is Shots For/60 minutes and Shots Allowed/60 minutes.

  • SOT: Percentage of shots on target .

  • Sh%: The percentage of shots on goal that are goals.

  • SCF60, SCA60: Scoring chances for and allowed per 60 minutes

  • GF60, GA60: These are goals for and goals allowed per 60 minutes.

  • ScoreAgg: Summed numbers of a teams GF60, xGF60 and the opponent's GA60 and xGA60.

I'm overgeneralizing, but I want teams that aren't afraid to shoot the puck. More shot attempts the better. Then I narrow it down more based on teams that are hitting the net and getting goals. Again, really high level stuff. Don't go all in based on one or even a few numbers, but I think it's more useful than just going off of implied goals.

Now let's dig into this slate.

Goaltenders

MacKenzie Blackwood - NJD (DK: $7700, FD: $7600)

Arguably the "safest" option on the board tonight. Priced right, but should be highly owned tonight.

Centers

Auston Matthews - TOR (DK: $8200, FD: $9000)

I hate DFS bias, but I also hate Matt Murray in DFS. I'll target him every game he starts, and tonight is no different. Even without touching projections, I have him at 95% in my early lineups. Don't be surprised if he's the top owned player tonight.

Wingers

T.J. Oshie -WAS (DK: $4900, FD: $6800)

I'm going through my W rankings and it's hard for me to make a sensible argument to play Patches or Marchessault. Don't get me wrong, I'll be playing both, but that's more of a "risk it for the biscuit" play than anything else. I wouldn't fault you for playing Kucherov, but I think Oshie makes the most sense out of this group. I was chatting with someone this morning about him, and I think he makes a lot of sense. Montreal has been allowing 3.8 goals per game over their last 5, which makes them a solid target to me. Oshie doesn't have the shot volume that I typically look for, but I love his price and he's averaging a goal a game over his last 5 games.

Defensemen

Zach Werenski - CLS (DK: $5800, FD: $6300)

Werenski is such a bargain for his level of shot volume and minutes each night. He's kind of a no brainer for my lineups.

If you take anything away from this, keep in mind that hockey is a high-variance sport. The top ranked player in each category could be a great play or be a dud tonight. Going all in on any player probably isn't a great move.

With DFS, I try to think of these things:

  • Who makes the most sense to play?

  • Where is the field leaning?

  • Who has been the most consistent?

  • Who has the most upside?

  • Who will benefit me most if others are wrong?

Bottom of the Barrel

Some people call these "value" plays or "salary savers." I hate both terms. These are players that I like for tonight that fit at the lowest salary tier. It could be they're playing on one of the top forward lines or it could be that they've been playing well, but these are my cheap calls for a skater to pick up a goal or assist.

Christian Dvorak: ARI - C (DK: $4300, FD: $5000)

Blake Coleman: TBL - W(DK: $2500, FD: $4500)

Ben Chiarot: MON - D (DK: $4100, FD: $3700)

Line Stacks

Line stacking is a common strategy in GPP. You’ll see a lot of winning lineups where players are stacked from the same forward lines or power play lines. DraftKings allows a maximum of 6 skaters from the same team (with skaters from at least 3 teams) and FanDuel allows a maximum of 4 skaters from one team. In tournaments, you'll often see 3-3 stacks (meaning 3 players from one team and 3 from another team), 4-3, and 3-3-2 stacks.

Looking at stacks for tonight, here are LineStar's top projected owned stacks, my top ranked, and the "risk it for the biscuit" stacks (high-upside, low ownership stacks.

Keep in mind, these are my favorites. These lines may change so keep an eye out for news during the day and during pre-game warmups. You should all do your own research and you might (and probably should) disagree with me in some spots. Don't be afraid to go your own way.

Good luck to–day! Tag me in the LineStar Chat @ZeroInDenver if you have any questions or feedback. Follow me on Twitter @ZeroInDenver.

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